S&P 500: Bears Produced First Confirmation of the TOP

<<< Back to All Updates
<<< Macro Updates

$SPX #S&P 500 #trading setup #MACRO

I think its time to come back to 2009 and count the rally in the cash index S&P 500 off that low:

SPX Daily chart, 2009 – 2015

The subwave (A) of wave (3) up topped in July 2015.

The subwave (B) down of wave (3) up bottomed in Feb 2016. Below I align those peak and trough with the textbook five wave up fractal.

Off the low made in Feb 2016 the next leg up in a subwave (C) of wave ( 3 ) up, the heart of the really (accelerated move up), was supposed to produce five clean waves up:

SPX Daily chart, 2016 – 2023

On the chart above you can see waves 1 up, 2 down, 3 up, 4 down inside the big subwave (C) of wave ( 3 ) up.

And here you can see the rally from 2019 to 2024:

SPX Daily chart, 2019 – 2024

I think S&P is working on the top of the large wave (3) up of the macro five wave up structure that started in 2009.

The 1 bln dollar question is whether the micro wave 5 of (C) of ( 3 ) up has topped.

SPX Daily chart, 2022 – 2024.

SPX: From perspective of the classic Elliott Wave theory this rally off the Oct 2022 low has been shaped as the Ending Diagonal. Once the Ending Diagonal gets completed it is normally followed by a very strong decline that pushes price back down to the starting point of the ED = 3,524.

I can outline four targets / strong support levels. We can expect S&P to bounce off each of them on the way down:

SPX Daily chart, 2022 – 2024.

Bulls overshot the upper edge of the narrow price channel. If bears manage to push price back inside the channel that should trigger acceleration of decline targeting the lower trend line.

Subscribe to Free Updates

Get Unlimited Access

More To Explore

Important Disclaimer

CastAway Trader LLC, the publisher of this web-site and videos is not registered as an investment adviser nor a broker/dealer with either the U. S. Securities & Exchange Commission or any state securities regulatory authority. Users of the website www.castawaytrader.com and viewers of the videos are advised that all information presented on the website is solely for informational purposes, is not intended to be used as a personalized investment recommendation, and is not attuned to any specific portfolio or to any user’s particular investment needs or objectives.

Trading stocks, options, or futures carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade, you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. CastAway Trader LLC provides general overview of trading methods that does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. The content of this website must not be construed as personal advice. All trading setups and/or trades presented in the web site and/or trading chat room by CastAway Trader an/or by other members of the chat should be considered hypothetical for educational purposes only and should not be expected to be replicated in a live trading account.

An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. You should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style.

You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading. You should seek advice from an independent financial advisor.

Any information posted on this web site is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All users of the website must determine for themselves what specific investments to make or not make and are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment decision. The reader bears responsibility for his/her own investment research and decisions, should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment, and investigate and fully understand any and all risks before investing. All opinions, analyses and information posted on the website are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but should be independently verified, and no representation or warranty of any kind, express or implied, is made, including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, CastAwayTrader LLC and its officers and employees undertake no responsibility to notify such opinions, analyses or information or to keep such opinions, analyses or information current. Also be aware that the owners, officers and employees of the web site www.castawaytrader.com may have long or short positions in securities that may be discussed on the website, Premium Trading Chat room and/or in the videos posted by CastAway Trader LLC.

Past results are not indicative of future profits.

Subscribe to Free Updates

Get Unlimited Access