$ES #ES #Elliott Wave We just got a solid jobs report but the market has not made its mind yet: ES-mini 30 min chart ES got stuck in between of very important levels: To confirm a macro bullish reversal bulls need to reclaim the broken Yearly Support 5,809. Alternatively, break back under 5,735, the milestone … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave Yesterday I noted a micro i up, ii down long setup. I noted that we can go long upon a break over 5,810 and sell at a resistance of 5,850. That long setup worked out well, The problem for bulls that they lost the whole progress overnight. This is how the … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave #breakdown #failed breakdown The first takeaway from the sharp drop we got yesterday is that bulls failed to close a day under 5,809, the critically important support yesterday. One battle got lost but that does not mean bears won the war. ES-mini 135 min chart We still can consider the Feb … Read more
$ES #ES #Elliott Wave #trading setup On Sunday I noted that: “…as long as bears hold ES-mini under 6,000 we can expect bears to finish the job they failed to complete last week, I mean testing 5,800 support level”. ES-mini 240 min chart On Monday a reactive rally run out of gas without testing the … Read more
$COMPX #one more higher high #the Top Looking at a weekly chart of Nasdaq Composite you can see that it has either made already or may make a lasting top soon: $COMPX Weekly chart The micro count argues that bulls can indeed push Nasdaq higher one more time before a lasting top is made: $COMPX … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave #trading tips On Friday I expected ES to drop. It did drop but then strongly recovered into end of the month (could be a window dressing). ES-mini 15 min chart As I noted in my weekend update, until bulls push ES over 6,000 this rally can be counted as a subwave … Read more
#silver #long setup #Inverse Head and Shoulders Bulls need to push silver over 32.90 (the neckline), to trigger a very bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern: Silver 8 hour chart See this live chart in TradingView. BEARISH SCENARIO: I would not buy silver until bulls manage to push it over the neckline 32,90 because there … Read more
$SPX $ES #Elliott Wave #trading setup Traditionally I will start this weekend update from a very big picture looking at a weekly chart of S&P 500 cash index ($SPX): SPX weekly chart S&P has been working on a large top of either wave ( 3 ) or wave ( 5 ) up. In any of … Read more
$TSLA #Bullish #long trade TSLA has hit a strong support 283.50: TS:A 120 min chart Note the whole move down has a clean a-b-c three wave subdivision. I would expect bulls to push TSLA back up at least to 350.
#Elliott Wave #Swing Trading BTC hit the upper edge of the unfilled gap up left behind in Nov’24 (the the cyan band). In an up trending market, an upper edge of the old unfilled gap up works as a strong support. Quite often when price comes back down to test such an unfilled gap it … Read more
$ES #ES-mini On Tuesday I warned you that “Break under 5,997 would open the door for another leg down targeting 5,805.“ Yesterday I shared a trading plan to short under 5,970: “A close under 5,970 today would be a very strong argument in favor of the bearish scenario that argues for a new leg down … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave Bears did not see anything to get concerned about prospects of the bearish path: ES-mini 240 min chart So far we got a very limited bullish reaction to that important support of the blue trend line. From the point of view of bulls, they have been doing a great job holding … Read more
$BTC #Bitcoin Back in Jan 2025 I warned you that Bitcoin would drop, see my update. Here I can offer you a bullish wave count that allows bulls to push BTC higher one more time: Bitcoin Weekly Let’s zoom to a daily chart: BTC Daily chart Now Let’s zoom-in to a 120 min chart: Bitcoin … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #bullish reversal The green demand zone 5,994 – 6,.000 got broken yesterday: ES-mini 120 min chart Note that Tuesday decline stopped right at the Support of the Month of February = 5,935.50 You can find that indicator here. Under the bearish scenario, If bulls fail to reclaim 6,000 we should get a new … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup In my yesterday update I concluded: If a new lower low under the Friday’s low is made, but bulls manage to reclaim and close above 6,024.50, it would confirm a strong long setup. Bears made a lower low in the morning but then managed to rally over 6,024.50 up to 6,048. … Read more
#Long Setup #Elliott Wave In mid Feb 2025 I shared a bearish path with subscribers of my Premium chat room: $COIN Daily chart Despite very strong eranings results the stock dropped hard as I expected. Now it is approaching the Green Box: $COIN 30 min chart 214 – 202 is where bulls can stop this … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave #trading setup The red line indicates a major level of resistance at 6,155 – 6,162.50: ES-mini 120 min chart That level got tested four times already. The Friday drop can be considered a subwave c of yet another flat a-b-c down corrective structure (see the right yellow rectangle): ES-mini 120 min … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave Yesterday bulls tested the Yearly Resistance 6,162.25 but today they dropped the ball and price dropped 50 points. Let’s discuss how that move down changes perspective of bulls and bears. That chart nicely illustrates what a 76.4% ext of a micro wave -i- up is such an important resistance, a “test” … Read more
$ES #breakout #gathering pattern #flat consolidation We are starting the day exactly where we started Tuesday, right under the Yearly Resistance 6,162.25: ES-mini Daily chart Bulls tested the Yearly Resistance 6,162.25 again but failed to break over that level again. When we deal with a bearish scenario and price hits a strong resistance without strong … Read more
#ES #Elliott Wave This is why bulls have a problem with push ES higher: ES-mini 120 min chart 6,162.25 is the Yearly Resistance for the whole 2025 year. That is the highest high made by bulls during the first three full weeks of a year. Break over that level would open potential for a new … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave We still have two very different scenarios in play: Bearish Scenario: This view considers the early December 2024 high as the top of wave 5 up. Under this bearish wave count, the whipsaw movement following that high is seen as part of a corrective a-b-c up pullback: ES-mini 120 min chart … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #ElliottWave #tradig setup #breakout Yesterday bulls managed to break over 6,103, the Monthly Resistance for Feb 2025. The nest hurdle to clear is 6,165, the 2025 Yearly Resistance Level. Bulls have been pushing ES mini along the path we discussed yesterday: ES-mini 120 min chart In the most pessimistic scenario another push to … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave Yesterday bears failed to push ES lower than support 1. Moreover, we got a very strong reactive rally. When we get some overlapping whipsaw on a micro level its time to zoom out and look at a bigger picture. ES 480 min // MACRO Bullish scenario: Bulls consider this directionless overlapping … Read more
$ES $NQ This morning CPI numbers came out higher than expected. That triggered a bearish spike: NQ-mini 120 min chart This is how ES mini looks like: ES-mini 120 min chart I have added the green box where bulls can try to stop the bleeding. Here ES is testing the support 1. A yearly pivot … Read more
$ES #ES-mini ES-mini has stopped right under the Red Box yesterday. Bears keep ES under the Monthly Resistance 6,103. That is the key breakout level. Until bulls manage to break over 6,103 I will be watching this bearish scenario: ES-mini 120 min chart Overnight bears broke the 6,074 key level: Now that 6,074 level is … Read more
$NQ #NQ-mini #ElliottWave #Lesson Elliott Wave Theory is an excellent tool for identifying trending, impulsive moves in the market. These trending moves often subdivide into five smaller waves, forming the foundation of a trend. Five-Wave Moves (Trending): A five-wave move (up or down) is relatively straightforward, as it follows a clear and dominant trend. When … Read more
$NQ #NQ-mini #trading setup I can’t see any wave count that allows bulls to push NQ-mini to higher highs before it makes lower lows. NQ-mini 120 min chart At the very least I expect bears to push NQ down to the Green Box. ideally, that decline can extend down to 20,700 to make a new … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave #trading setup The whipsaw we got on Thursday can be perfectly counted as a subwave -b- down of wave -iii- up. That wave count argues that a new strong and accelerated leg up in a subwave -c- of wave -iii- up has started. ES-mini 480 min chart Note that ES has … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave #tradig setup The bullish wave count tracks this move up as an unfolding five wave up structure targeting 6,300+. ES-mini 120 min chart Let’s zoom in to a 15 min chart: ES-mini 15 min chart Yesterday we got a long micro -i- up, -ii- dpwn setup, a starting point of a … Read more
$ES #ES-mini As I noted yesterday, bulls got a solid base for another impulsive rally, a flat -a- down, -b- up, -c- down structure highlighted with the yellow rectangle on the chart below. ES-mini 15 min chrt Off the low made by the second leg down in a subwave -c- of wave (b) of (v) … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave We have not seen true higher high and a true lower low for weeks. This is why we can count that directionless consolidation in two opposite ways: ES-mini daily chart The market has been digesting the strong one day drop we got on Dec 18,2024. As you can see, Bears tried … Read more
$ES #ES-mini On Friday Es-mini dropped under support and invalidated the bullish -i- up, -ii- down setup. Remember a rule of thumb “almost every big drop starts from invalidation a promising bullish -i- up, ii- down.” Let’s look at the bearish macro scenario: ES-mini 8 hour chart I would expect bears to tag the micro … Read more
$RTY #Macro #milestones Check how price stumbled upon the red line three times: RTY Daily chart This is where two previous waves B got terminated. Bears may turn RTY down off that line and push RTY down to the blue trend line. 2,040 level is where the wave -B- down got terminated. Always remember to … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave Let’s review a bearish MACRO scenario: ES-mini Daily chart The key daily support is 6,067.50. Why? Because a daily close under that level today would complete a 2-close bearish reversal” an intraday higher high followed by a a close under two previous closes. So if bears manage to close a day … Read more
NQ has been trading within a defined range for five weeks. The range has an upper resistance zone around 22,100 and a lower support zone near 20,700. NQ-mini Daily chart Note almost identical two legs up off the green strong support 20,713. Note that each of those legs had a clean a-b-c up structure (see … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave I tend to think that ES has not completed the micro wave -ii- down yet: ES-mini 48- min chart Let me show you a micro wave count: ES-mini 15 min chart This grinding move up could be a corrective subwave -b- up that can be followed by a quick drop in … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Ellitt Wave Ideally I would like ES-mini to spend more time for consolidation. But the market may be in a rush to start another leg up. I want you to be prepared for that scenario: ES-mini 8 hour chart We can consider whipsaw we got this week as a small wave -ii- down. … Read more
$NQ $NQ #Double Three The spiky drop we got on Monday did not invalidate the Uber Bullish scenario: NQ-Daily chart That uber bullish scenario allows bulls to start a big rally from here as long as they hold over the immediate stop 20,700. However, I doubt that scenario because I do NOT like that shallow … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave That is potential reasonable scenario for bulls: ES-mini 480 min chart Price may need more time to complete the subwave (b) down shaped as a triangle. Yesterday I noted that price dropped into the green box as expected (see chartimage.png) but it did that too fast and lacked a corrective a-b-c … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave #trading setup Bears are still in control. But they have to keep ES-min under the key resistance 6,107.50. Let me explain why: ES-mini 8 hour chart You can see two legs p highlighted with black lines.This is a corrective a up, b down, c up zig – zag pattern.Note that they … Read more