$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave $ES-mini keeps following the path I outlined in the update of S&P 500 index published yesterday morning. ES-mini 15 min chart Note that I counted the a-b-c-d-e up consolidation up off the low made at 5,208.75 at 12:15 PM EST yesterday as a completed wave (b) up. hat wave count allows … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave As anticipated, sellers showed up right on cue in ES, turning price down from a powerful confluence zone — the 50% retracement Fib combined with the 138.2% extension Fib. ES-mini chart posted at 4:34 PM on Wednesday This is what I posted for subscribers of my chat room at 4:34 PM … Read more
$SPX #S&P500 #Elliott Wave We can count a large (a)-(b)-(c) down move off the mid Dec 2024 high as the first leg down in a large corrective (A) down, (B) up, (C) down structure: Most likely, that first leg down labelled (A) bottomed on Monday. Note this update is about the cash index S&P 500, … Read more
$ES #ES In my Tuesday evening update I concluded that we can get one more dead cat bounce up to 5,252 in a subwave (c) of wave (iv) up. And we have got that pop today: ES-mini 15 min chart We got a spiky wave (c) up to a 123.6% ext of (a) up = … Read more
$NQ #NQ-mini Macro Wave Structure Analysis: Bearish Impulse & Corrective Rebound The sharp decline from the December 2024 high appears to be impulsive in nature, suggesting the early stages of a larger bearish trend. This move can be interpreted as an unfolding five-wave structure to the downside, which does not yet appear complete. The accelerated … Read more
$ES #Macro I count that decline off the Dec’24 top as the wave A down that does not look having bottomed yet. ES-mini Daily chart The Sunday low can be counted as teh bottom of the micro wave ( iii ) down. The quick 2 day pullback we got on Monday and Tuesday could be … Read more
$ES #ES #Elliott Wave Looking at the ES Mini chart, it’s hard to argue that the drop is complete.The Sunday low likely marked the end of wave (iii) down. ES-mini Daily chart The bounce from that point is now being counted as corrective wave (iv) up. Key retracement levels to watch: These are classic targets … Read more
$ES #ES #Elliott Wave So far we got a clearly corrective -a-b-c- up bounce that can be counted as a micro wave -iv- up: ES-mini 60 min chart As long as bears hold ES under 5,296 they will remain in control and will be able to push ES-mini down in a micro wave -v- targeting … Read more
$RTY #Macro In January I warned subscribers of my chat room about upcoming big drop in small caps: RTY Daily chart posted on Jan 31, 2025. This is how that chart looks like now: RTY Daily chart RTY has a perfectly clean wave count. That wave count clearly states that this drop is only the … Read more
$SPX #S&P 500 #Weekend #Macro Updtae 🔍 Weekly Chart – Macro Analysis Let’s update our macro perspective on the S&P 500. At this point, we can reasonably conclude that the strongest phase of the rally off the 2009 low is complete.Under the bearish blue count, bulls can still argue that we’ve only seen the top … Read more
$NQ $NA #ElliottWave NQ has hit a super strong 50% retracement of teh whole rally off the Oct’2022 lo We can count that decline as a large wave A down to be followed by a a corrective (a)-(b)-(c) up bounce in a wave B up retracing 50% of that decline: NQ-mini Daily chart
$ES #ES #Elliott Wave ES dropped to the Macro Target 3 and enetered the green macro Demand zone. We have had that Macro Target 3 on our chart since mid December 2024 ES-mini Daily chart 5,303.75, the Aug’24 low, is the key level to watch! Bulls have to push ES back over that level to … Read more
$NQ #NQ #ElliottWave NQ came back down to re-test the Green Box: NQ-mini Daily chart overall NQ looks macro bullish. Let’s dive deeper an look at a 120 min chart: NQ-mini 120 min chart NQ has made a lower low today meeting min requirement for an a-b-c subdivision of the final wave v down. At … Read more
$ES #ES #Elliott Wave In yesterday’s afternoon update, I concluded that the bears now have a solid macro short setup, with the potential to push ES down toward the Macro Target at 5,303. Just a reminder—every trading day starts with my pre-market report, where I outline potential tradeable setups. I usually follow that with one … Read more
$NQ #NQ #Elliott Wave Yesterday I showed a micro wave count that argued that the move up off the Monday low could be counted as a micro wave -i- up that should be followed by a pullback in a wave -ii- down. This is how that wave count looks like now: NQ-mini 15 min chart … Read more
$ES #ES #ElliottWave #trading setup Let’s talk first about the primary bearish scenario. ES-mini Daily chart Bears argue that ES-mini made a lasting top in December 2024. When we deal with a completed a five-wave up rally we anticipate a corrective A-B-C decline to follow. 🔻 Normal Key Downside Targets (Support Levels) Target 1: (support … Read more
$NQ #NQ #ElliottWave #tradingsetup It is possible that the large multi month log corrective wave (iv) down bottomed yesterday. Then we can expect a new five wave up rally to a new all time high. NQ-mini Daily chart Any five wave rally starts from a micro i up, ii down setup: ES-mini 15 min chart … Read more
$NQ $NQ #failed breakdown #intraday reversal This morning bears finally pushed NQ down to tag the Green Box we discussed in the weekend update: NQ-mini Daily chart Now bulls can trigger a bullish “failed breakdown” setup for a bounce if they push NQ back over the milestone support 19,070.
$NQ #Elliott Wave #weekend Only one trading day remains in March. Historically, markets often close a month with a final push in the direction of the prevailing trend. Given the sustained decline last week, we may see one last exhaustion move to a lower low today or tomorrow. Let’s look at a bigger macro picture … Read more
#ES $ES #Elliott Wave #trading setup Bears managed to break support of the blue trend line. ES-mini 240 min chart Moreover, bulls attempted to reclaim that level but the move up failed pre-market. That makes the textbook breakdown-followed-failed-retest-from-below kind of a short setup. Bears have opened up a big air pocket all the way down … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #ElliottWave On Tuesday I shared a bullish path to a new all time high: ES-mini 240 min chart posted on March 25, 2025 Every five wave up rally starts from a micro i up, ii down setup. The wave ( i ) up topped in the Red Target Box. Bulls consider the Wed … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #a-b-c up off the low Yesterday ES-mini completed the second leg up inside our red Target Box: ES-mini 30 min chart posted on Mar 25, 2025 Today bears pushed it under the very first micro support 5,802 and confirmed start of a move down. Under the most bullish micro that shallow a-b-c down … Read more
to prove it was more than just a corrective bounce off the mid March low… $ES #ES-mini #ElliottWave #trading setup #forecast ES keeps crawling up and is approaching two strong resistance levels: Under the bearish scenario the whole a-b-c p bounce off the mid month low was a corrective subwave (b) up of wave ( … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Waves As we expected in the Weekend Update posted on Sunday morning, a break back over the Monthly Support 5,744 was followed by extension of the rally: ES-mini 30 min chart There are two key levels of resistance ahead: The 76.4% ext of the wave ( a ) up = 5,801 (the … Read more
#MACRO #Weekend $ES #Elliott Wave Over the last 10 years, chances to make money on going long SPY on March 23rd and hold until mid April were 80%. That seasonal trade did not work only in 2022 and 2024 years (see above). BULLISH MACRO SCENARIO: Bulls actually have a decent long setup to benefit from … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave #triangle Overnight bears violated the stop level 5,685. That is a very bearish sign. Move under 5,685 will most likely be followed by another leg down to a new lower low. However, so far bulls managed to recapture the 5,685 level and the micro resistance level 5,692: ES-mini 30 min chart … Read more
$NQ #NQ The broader outlook for NQ remains bearish. We can consider the rally that began in October 2022 as completed. NQ Daily chart After the completion of a five-wave impulsive structure, we typically expect a corrective A down, B up, C down pattern to follow. NQ Daily chart Additionally, take note of the thick … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave Yesterday afternoon I shared expectation for another push higher towards 5,800. And then ES rallied but stopped at 5,770. That was a good move but smaller than I expected. ES refused to take the easy route (see the path I expected here, as it often does. The w-x-y upward structure could … Read more
#ES $ES Yesterday I noted: 5,659 would be the critical level of support. If bulls manage to stop bleeding at that level and start a new rally, that would be a strong argument in favor of the bullish scenario that allows bulls to start a rally in a wave (c) of ( i ) up … Read more
$AMZN #Elliott wave #long setup We accurately nailed the completion of a five wave up rally in AMZN and predicted a large corrective (a) down, (b) up, (c) down structure of a wave (B) down: AMZN weekly chart AMZN dropped nicely to teh textbook 33.3% retracement of the preceding rally. That level the first target … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave The bullish scenario considers the low made on March 13th as a bottom of a corrective (a) down, (b) up, (c) down corrective pullback that made a higher low: ES-mini 240 min chart That (a) down, (b) up, (c) down pllback built a base for bulls to start a new impulsive … Read more
$ES #ES #Elliott Wave First, please note that Tradestation, the platform I use for charting, automatically switched me from expiring ES-mini March contract (ESH25) to a new June 2025 contract (ESM25). That means all the levels have changed: ESM25, 240 min chart Last week ES-mini dropped to a very strong milestone support 5,579 (for the … Read more
#ES $ES #Elliott Wave Yesterday morning I got you prepared for one more push lower to test and undershoot the key milestone 5,525 level of support: ES-mini 240 min chart This is an excerpt from Thursday morning report: ES made the low at 5,509.25, pretty close to the expected target 1. Then, as we expected, … Read more
#ES $ES #Elliott Wave #seasonality #fractals The March 2023 bottom looks very similar to that consolidation: ES-mini 240 min, March 2023 This is how ES looks on 240 min chart now: ES-mini 240 min chart, March 2025 To confirm a bullish reversal we need bulls to push ES-mini over resistance 5,642: ES-mini 10 min chart … Read more
$ES #ES #Elliott Wave This morning bulls got a gift from teh CPI data. Core and frontline inflation both are softer than expected. That data brings back expectations of a rate cut = very bullish. ES-mini 30 min chart It is possible that the CPI spike was a micro subwave b up that can be … Read more
$S&P #buy point #strong support #corrective a-b-c down The $IJH ETF tracks performance of S&P Mid Cap 400 index (the S&P 500 without the largest overhyped and overpriced mega tech stocks). S&P 500: Tracks 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the U.S. It primarily includes large-cap stocks, with market capitalizations generally above $14 … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave #trading setup #bottoming We got a corrective three wave down (a)-(b)-(c) move towards the Macro Target / Macro Support 5,476: ES-mini Daily chart That 5,476 level is a milestone support, a low made by a corrective wave (b) down in Aug 2024. When analyzing a corrective structure, we use four key … Read more
$ES #ES #Elliott Wave Bears triggered the bearish Plan B we discussed on Sunday night: go short on a break of 5,720: ES-mini 30 min chart At the very least bears need to make a nominal lower low undercutting the low made on Friday morning (5,673): ES-mini 30 min chart But that drop may extend … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave Bulls need to hold ES over 5,735 to keep the long setup alive. The macro bullish reversal shall be confirmed by a break back over the broke Yearly Support 5,809. ES-mini 30 min chart PLAN B: Short breakdown setup: go short upon break under 5,720, target 5,645. The problem is the … Read more
$ES #ES-mini #Elliott wave Bears made enough micro waves to consider the second leg down having bottomed: ES-mini 240 min To confirm that bullish reversal bulls need to close the week over the broken Yearly Support 5,809. Micro chart: ES-min 15 min chart