$ES #ES #Elliott Wave
Bears triggered the bearish Plan B we discussed on Sunday night: go short on a break of 5,720:
ES-mini 30 min chart
At the very least bears need to make a nominal lower low undercutting the low made on Friday morning (5,673):
ES-mini 30 min chart
But that drop may extend to 5,645 -> 5,625.
Interestingly 5,686 is a weekly support. So if bulls manage to close this week over 5,686 that would save the macro bullish trend.
SPY March Seasonality:
Seasonality would favor bulls only starting the March 23 (after OPEX).
BONUS: Mid Cap 400. I like to separately watch a wave count of IJH ETF representing S&P 400 mid caps (without overpriced and overhyped mega tech stocks):
we have got a large corrective looking (a) down, (b) up, (c) down move where (c) = 100% of (a).
Ideally I woudl like to have one more push lower to either 123.6% ext of wave (a) = 57.37 or 138.2% ext of the wave (a) = 56.37.
Most likely that (a)-(b)-(c) move down comprises only the first three wave move down in wave A down that can be followed by a bounce in a wave B up making a lower high.
Check out the bigger picture on a weekly chart of IJH:
IJH weekly chart
Note that 57.40 is the first strong support. That is the top of the wave 3 up.
There is a bullish seasonality window starting for IJH from March 23 until Apr 29:
Seasonal pattern for IJH based on the last 10 years.
AFTERNOON UPDATE, 1:40 PM EST
On Sunday night I shared a simple to trade short setup: “PLAN B: Short breakdown setup: go short upon break under 5,720, target 5,645.“.
This afternoon ES mini dropped and tagged the Green target box:
ES-mini 30 min chart.
So we got a 100pts winning short trade covered here at the Green box.
Now I would wait for confirmation of a bullish reversal. I would like bulls to push ES back over 5,682.