$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave #trading strategy Today ES-mini futures completed the bearish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern: ES-mini, tick bar chart The neckline 4,514 was violated twice today. Now look at that a-b-c flat structure in the yellow box. Remember the rule for up trending market: “A flat…...
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave #trading strategy ES-mini has a bearish look: I really like how price broke under support of the trendline and then bounced hard to test that line from below. So far price stopped right at the critical resistance, a 66.7% retracement of the August decline:…...
$NQ #NQ #trading setup #Elliott Wave #trading strategy We got an -w-x-y- up bounce into the resistance of the Red Box. That move up looks like the Right Shoulder of the Bearish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern. That setup allows bears to start a new large leg down in a…...
$SPX #S&P 500 #Macro Forecast #Weekly #Elliott Wave On Aug 21st I posted that chart with two potential macro paths: That chart demonstrates how we can handle uncertainty that is essential part of the stock market. To be able to make money in the stock market by trying to guess…...
$ES #ES #trading setup #Elliott Wave #trading strategy If we look at a macro 240 min chart we can see a three wave up move that looks like a corrective pullback: The move up off the mid August low has been following a corrective -w- up, -x- down, -y- up…...
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave #trading strategy Yesterday we correctly predicted that violent rally: My conclusion was: “That flat consolidation is a solid base for bulls for a new rally targeting 4,495.” This is how that chart looks like now: Let’s zoom out to see where we got with…...
$ES #ES #trading setup #Elliott Wave Let’s refresh the big picture looking at the weekly chart below: My primary scenario assumes that ES-mini made a lasting top in late July 2023. And I consider this rally as a corrective bounce. Now let’s zoom-in to a 15 min chart: On this…...
$ES #ES #trading setup #Elliott Wave Yesterday I posted two different scenarios. Bears had a great scenario for a breakdown but I shared my concerns: “Bears sit on a great short setup. But to trigger that setup the key weekly support 4,368 has to be broken. Until that happens we…...
$NQ #NQ-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave #trading strategy In mid August decline stopped at the Green Box, the ideal place to complete a corrective (a)-(b)-(c) down structure: This is when and where bulls could turn NQ up and start a new rally to a higher high in a wave (v)…...
$ES #ES #Weekend #Elliott Wave In my Thursday report I outlined two alternative scenarios, a bullish and the bearish one. Today we will review them in details. But first I would like to comment on my primary scenario: Many bears expect the upcoming second leg down in the wave (C)…...
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #five waves down Yesterday I shared a bearish path and noted that it would be valid as long as bears keep ES-mini under 4,409: So far ES has been nicely following that path. Note that it dropped down to the point marked up with the green…...
$ES #ES #trading setup #breakdown #Elliott Wave Yesterday I posted a chart showing that ES-mini hit the supply zone: I kept talking about that bearish reversal Head and Shoulders pattern days before the crowd finally took notice. First I shared expectations for un upcoming bounce on August 17th then on…...
$NQ #NQ-mini futures #trading setup #Elliott Wave On Tuesday I posted this chart It showed a bullish widely watched scenario where a test of the major support was supposed to be followed by a new rally in a wave (v) up targeting new higher highs of the 2023 year. However,…...
$Es #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave #trading strategy We have got a bounce to the lower edge of a Red supply zone: That supply zone stopped two strong rallies in June and July 2023. Moreover, that move up looks like the right shoulder of the bearish reversal head and shoulders…...
$NQ #NQ-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave On August 17th I noted that the minimum bullish expectation was a rally to the Red Box on a Daily chart with the lower edge at 15,318. On August 22 I talked about a bearish Head and Shoulders reversal shown on the 240 min…...
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #a-b-c up #Elliott Wave Yesterday I shared an expected path for continuation of the corrective a-b-c up bounce off the low made last Friday: In my Premium Chat room I shared this micro path on a 15 min chart: This is how that chart looks like…...
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave Yesterday I shared a micro forecast for a micro rally targeting 4,418 – 4,435. We got that rally and today ES-mini topped at 4,440. Let’s update two macro scenarios we have been watching. (i) Bearish scenario: Bears believe that the two day bounce was…...
$NQ #NQ-mini #trading futures #Elliott Wave #trading strategy In my previous update on NQ-mini futures I noted that it dropped to the Green Traget box: My forecast was: “I expect to get at least a corrective a-b-c up bounce to test the Red Box. If bulls manage to break over…...
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave #a-b-c up bounce I keep watching two macro scenarios on a weekly chart of S&P cash index: The main difference between the bullish blue path and the bearish red path is how far this move up off the upper demand zone can go. My…...
$es #es-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave My macro count has not changed for months. I continue to consider the move down that bottomed in Oct 2022 as the first leg down in a macro (A) down, (B) up, and (C) down structure: I consider the 2023 rally as a corrective…...
$SPX #S&P 500 #weekly #Elliott Wave ES-mini futures kept tanking to new lows overnight. I expected ES-mini to produce at least a bounce off 4,400 support but dropped much lower. When something unexpected happens we always should zoom-out and look at the big picture. On July 30 I posted my…...
$NQ #NQ-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave We can count the move down off the July high as a corrective (a)-(b)-(c) down structure: NQ dropped to the Green Box formed by two retracement fibs, 30% and 41.4%. NQ has hit the target 1 = 14,829, a 30% retracement of the preceding…...
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave #trading strategy On Tuesday I concluded: “In ideal case this move down should extend down to 4,405 or slightly under 4,400 to run numerous protective stops.“ So far ES-mini dropped down to 4,109.50 yesterday after close. At this point we can not confidently say…...
$NQ #NQ-mini futures #trading setup In the previous macro update I reiterated my expectation for this decline to eventually test the main support at 14,900: I can perfectly count that decline as a completed corrective double three structure of a wave (iv) down. Upon completion of a wave (iv) down…...
$ES #ES-mini #trading futures #trading setup #Elliott Wave #trading strategy Yesterday I concluded that bears could push ES-mini lower. On Monday I shared that bearish path and ES-mini keeps following it: I concluded that Monday bearish report with the following: “Bears have a setup to turn ES-mini down and start…...
$NQ #nq-mni futures #trading setup #Elliott Wave #trading strategy This morning NQ is testing a micro demand zone formed by four previous bears’ attacks: The ideal scenario to trade is a failed breakdown setup when price drops slighly under 15,040 but then bulls step in and turn NQ back up…....
$es #es-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave Yesterday evening I posted a chart that argues for bears to make at least one more push lower down to 4,437. Ideal to trade scenario for today is a breakdown under that quadruple bottom (blue line at 4,447.50), quick emotional drop down to the…...
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave Yesterday I shared a decent short setup: I concluded that report with the following: “Bears have a setup to turn ES-mini down and start a subwave c of wave -y- down targeting the Green Demand Zone. The first support is 4,438.“ Today ES opened…...
$NQ #NQ-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave #trading strategy In the previous update I shared a setup for a rally: NQ rallied as expected, hit the Red Box, turned down and dropped overnight. It nicely followed the path I shared with you in the previous update: Let’s zoom out to a…...
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave In the morning update I shared a bullish path for ES-mini futures: This is how that forecast played out: Bulls pushed ES-mini into the Red Target box as expected! I can only reiterate my conclusion from the morning report: “If bulls fail to break…...
$ES #ES #trading setup #Daily #micro #Elliott Wave #trading strategy Yesterday in a macro update I posted that Daily chart of ES-mini futures: The rule is “upon completion of a five wave up structure the low made by a pullback in a wave (iv) down works both as a magnet for the…...
$NQ #NQ-mini #trading setup #Elliott Wave The wave count of the rally in NQ-mini futures off the low made in October 2022 considers this decline off the July top as a corrective wave (iv) down that can be followed by another rally to a higher high of the 2023 year…...
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup #trading futures #Elliott Wave My primary macro scenario assumes that the rally off the 2009 low topped in Jan 2022: Then we should expect a large (A)-(B)-(C) down corrective move. The 2022 decline that bottomed in Oct 2022 can be counted as a wave (A) down…...
$NQ #NQ-mini #trading futures #macro update #Elliott Wave We can consider that bullish path our primary scenario. The bullish scenario is based on assumption that NQ made a major bottom of a corrective wave in Oct 2022. If we assume that NQ made a major bottom of a corrective wave…...
$NQ #NQ-mini #trading setup Yesterday I shared a short setup that played out well. NQ-mini dropped 150 points overnight. Let’s review the wave count of the decline. I will attempt to re-count it as a combination of three wave moves. We can count the whole decline as a -w-x-y- down…...
$NQ #NQ-mini #trading setup That slow grinding move up after close is exactly what I expected. At 2-30 PM I shared with subscribers of my Premium Chat room this micro path: And NQ dropped in a subwave -b- down into close following the path. Ad after close NQ-mini has been…...
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup Yesterday I posted the bearish scenario: Today algos played the same tricky Expanded Flat structure we discussed yesterday with respect to NQ: The morning rally was a subwave c up in a corrective consolidation of wave (b) up. Upon completion of a corrective wave (b) up…...
$NQ #NQ-mini NQ produced a large -a-b-c- move down off the July high. Ideally it should be followed by a large -a-b-c- up structure retracing from 41.4% to 66.7% of the preceding decline. So far we got a very small pullback. There are two scenarios for completion of the corrective…...
$ES #ES-mini #trading setup Overnight the bullish bounce that started on Tuesday afternoon extended to ne higher highs. At 8-51 AM EST I shared with subscribers of my premium trading chat room expectations for upcoming decline into the Green Box: “The rally extended overnight without any pullbacks and retraced 1/3…...
$NQ #NQ-mini #trading setup #ElliottWave Yesterday NQ started with a clean short setup for bears: I expected bears to produce a micro bounce in a wave ii up before an accelerated decline would start. However, acceleration started without a pullback: That lack of a pullback is always a red flag…....