$ES: My Way to Pivot from Bearish to Bullish Bias

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$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave #trading tips

On Friday I expected ES to drop. It did drop but then strongly recovered into end of the month (could be a window dressing).

ES-mini 15 min chart

As I noted in my weekend update, until bulls push ES over 6,000 this rally can be counted as a subwave -c- of a corrective wave b up. A corrective wave b up is supposed to be followed by an impulsive wave c down.

Micro wise, as long as bears hold ES-mini under 6,000 we can expect bears to finish the job they failed to complete last week, I mean testing 5,800 support level.

But what if bulls manage to violate the 6,000 level? Would I chase it? No, I never chase the price. If the 6,000 level gets violated I will try to find a safe long entry.

For example I will be watching that scenario:

ES-mini 15 min chart

Bulls can pump ES-mini slightly over 6,015 to set a bulls’ trap. Then bears would step in and push ES back under that level. Those failed breakouts short setups have been working really well.

We will get an attractive long setup if (i) the 6,000 level gets breached, then price drops in a corrective looking a-b-c down structure to a 50% retracement = 5,926. That drop would complete the right shoulder of a bullish reversal Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern.

CLOSING NOTES // AFTERNOON UPDATE // 3:41 pm EST

This morning I noted:

As I noted in my weekend update, until bulls push ES over 6,000 this rally can be counted as a subwave -c- of a corrective wave b up. A corrective wave b up is supposed to be followed by an impulsive wave c down.

Micro wise, as long as bears hold ES-mini under 6,000 we can expect bears to finish the job they failed to complete last week, I mean testing 5,800 support level.

ES-mini 15 min chart

This is how a big picture 240 min chart looks like now:

ES-mini 240 min chart

ES bounced up to the broken support of the blue trend line and got rejected there this morning.

Then we got a drop finishing the bears’ job that got interrupted by the window dressing rally on Friday (the last day of a month).

That wave count considers that drop as the final push of the second leg down in a subwave (c) down.

That large (a) down, (b) up, (c) down consolidation can be counted as a subwave (b) down of wave ( v ) up. Bears will most likely undercut the 5,805 support. Moreover, they can push ES down to 5,765.

Then, if bulls manage to reclaim the broken support 5,805 level that would close a bears’ trap and trigger a long “failed breakdown” setup.

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