$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave
Yesterday I noted a micro i up, ii down long setup. I noted that we can go long upon a break over 5,810 and sell at a resistance of 5,850. That long setup worked out well,
The problem for bulls that they lost the whole progress overnight.
This is how the bullish scenario looks like now:
ES-mini 240 min chart
The red (a) down, (b) up, (c) down structure can be considered a re-acumulation pattern, a base for another large implsive rally
But so far bulls have not been able to produce any meaningful move up.
The problem is that the consolidation near the Monthly Support 5,744 can be considered a bearish re-destribution pattern, an a-b-c up bounce:
ES-mini 30 min chart
The first confirmation of a breakdown will be a break under 5,760.
The second confirmation is a break to a new lower low under 5,744.
If 5,744 support gets broken we will see a large air pocket opened with the next major support ay 5,476.
To solidly invalidate that bearish scenario bulls would need to close a day over 5,874. Until that happens bears will remain in control and down will remain to be the path of the least resistance.
AFTERNOON UPDATE // 2:30 pm est
Bears pushed ES back under the morning low 5,760 and triggered the Bearish breakdown scenario:
ES-mini 30 min chart
Let’s discuss where bears may find strong demand from bulls.
ES-mini 240 min chart
Key Levels & Setup Explanation
When analyzing a corrective (a)-(b)-(c) decline from the top, we focus on two critical Fibonacci extension levels derived from wave (a):
- 123.6% extension – 5,708
- 138.2% extension – 5,654
These levels serve as potential support zones where buyers may step in.
Additionally, 5,735 is a significant milestone level that now acts as an immediate resistance for bulls.
Bullish Reversal Trading Setup: “Failed Breakdown”
- Step 1: ES has undercut 5,735. If bulls can reclaim this level after testing the Green Box (the support zone between 5,708 and 5,654), it would trigger a classic “failed breakdown” long setup.
- Step 2: Prerequisite Condition: Price must first tag the Green Box before a potential bullish reversal can take shape.
- Step 3: Bull should reclaim the 5,735 level to trigger the bullish reversal “failed breakdown” setup.
Pre-close update:
Bulls reclaimed the milestone support 5,735.
We can identify a bullish reversal Inverse Head and Shoulders setup.
To trigger that setup bulls need to push ES over 5,760.
The target for the rally will be 5,800.
- PLAN A: go long on a break over 5,760
- PLAN B: Short on a break under the bottom of the right shoulder = 5,731