$ES-mini:
Will We Get Another Bounce
Before the Breakdown?
We still have two main scenarios on the table. I still favor the bearish scenario arguing for a breakdown under … Read more
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$ES-mini:
NQ-mini:
I expect a corrective bounce
before the next big leg down begins
The five wave down structure off the high made last Friday looks having completed: As long as bulls hold NQ … Read more
ES-mini:
The Primary Bearish Scenario
Argues for a Breakdown
Let’s first start from reviewing the Bullish low probability scenario. As long as bulls hold ES over 3,571: (i) the … Read more
RTY-mini:
I expect another slide down
this week
I expect RTY-mini futures to break under Sep’22 lows in an a-b-c down structure (with a shallow pullback in subwave … Read more
NQ-mini:
The Morning Bounce
Looks Like
a Short Setup
This is how the primary bearish scenario looks like: We may be dealing with a corrective pullback digesting sharp decline … Read more
NQ-mini:
To Kill the Bullish Macro Scenario
Bears Need to Make
A New Lower Low of 2022 year
The Weekend Update Let’s start from a primary MACRO Bearish Scenario for NQ-mini: Under the Macro Bearish count in NQ, … Read more
ES-mini:
How Bulls Can Save
the Bullish “Santa’s Rally” scenario
The Weekend Macro Update. Every weekend I outline most probable macro scenarios, potential paths for upcoming months. In this update … Read more
ES-mini:
A breakdown confirms
that a corrective pullback topped
ES-mini dropped under support 3,695 and by doing that invalidated teh bullish count for one more push higher and confirmed … Read more
Crude Oil
Continues to Outperform
As Expected
Crude Oil broke out of a bullish ascending wedge: I expect a corrective -a-b-c- down pullback in wave -ii- down … Read more
ES-mini:
Dropped on NFP release,
is testing a critical support
This morning Non-farm payroll data release caused spike down in futures. ES-mini dropped deeper into the Green Box: ES has … Read more
ES-mini:
Dropped to the Green Box
As Expected
This is the ES-mini 120 min chart with expected path I posted in my evening update yesterday: The expectation was … Read more
RTY-mini:
To Complete A Pullback
We Need One Push Higher
I consider that move up a corrective bounce in wave X up: You can compare two charts above and see … Read more
ES-mini: Declined as Expected,
Found Support at the Green Box
As we predicted on Wednesday evening, ES-mini turned down and declined overnight. On Thursday morning bulls tried to start a … Read more
ES-mini:
My Preferred Scenario
My primary scenario is that ES is in a corrective wave X up: The first argument i favor of that … Read more
GDX: This Rally
Has Room to Go Higher
Yesterday I posted a macro chart that argued that gold miners ETF GDX made a lasting bottom: In the macro … Read more
$ES: Bears Failed to Start
A Big Decline:
What’s Next?
To keep alive the bearish setup under the completed Expanding Triangle scenario bears had to keep ES at all times … Read more
Crude Oil:
A Corrective a-b-c Pullback
Would Be a Long Setup
Crude Oil still holds inside the bullish looking descending wedge: That move up into the upper egde of that wedge … Read more
Bitcoin: Bears sit
on an Attractive
Short Setup
On Tuesday, 4 October 2022, Bitcoin managed to make a higher high and by doing that it met minimum requirement … Read more
NQ-mini: Bears Triggered
A Failed Breakout
Short Trading Setup
NQ completed a corrective Expanding Triangle on Tuesday: The “Expanding Triangle” pattern is widely known as “Megaphone” or Broadening Formation/Consolidation. … Read more
GDX: An Attractive Macro
Long Setup
We can count a huge (A) up, (B) down, (C) up move off the lows of 2016 as a completed … Read more
ES-mini: The Rally Hit
the Red Target Box
This morning I shared a wave count that considered the rally in ES-mini as the final subwave e of a … Read more
Bitcoin is About to Complete
a Corrective Pullback
In the previous macro update we noted that Bitcoin needed to drop lower to complete a macro corrective structure. On … Read more
RTY: That Rally
Looks Like
A Corrective Pullback
This rally looks like a textbook subwave (c) in a corrective (a)-(b)-(c) up structure.Sometimes wave (c) up has a clean … Read more
ES-mini: A Corrective
“Megaphone” Pattern
When price goes up in a straight-line without pullbacks that is a sign it is driven by forced liquidations of … Read more
RTY: Macro Update:
this bounce should stretch to 1,800
We can count decline off the top made in Nov’21 as a huge (W)-(X)-(Y) Double Three structure: The first leg … Read more
Gold Looks
Having Bottomed
Last week GLD dropped into the Green Target box and then turned up strongly: Looking at 30 min chart we … Read more
Natural Gas:
Still Has a Bullish Setup
Despite a Drop
Despite a great looking long trading setup NG dropped to a lower low today. However, its too rearly to discard … Read more
Crude Oil:
A Gorgeous Long Setup
As we noted several times in September, bulls have a gorgeous long setup in crude oil: Bulls are ready to … Read more
ES-mini: Weekend Update:
Three Macro Scenarios
All Point Up
I traditionally update macro scenarios on weekends. The main assumption of all three macro scenarios I will review before is … Read more
One More Drop Needed
for a Macro Bottom
in Bitcoin
We can count three large waves behind the rally off the low made in December 2019: That (A)-(B)-(C) move up … Read more
USD Index hit the target,
I expect a quick pullback
DXY (USD index) hit my target for wave 3 of (C) of (3), the strongest part of any five wave … Read more
ES-mini: has a bullish
micro i up, ii down setup
Every wave -c- even in a corrective a-b-c structure follows a five wav structure. Therefore, a five wave up rally … Read more
ES-mini:
two probable paths
I am watching
Under the micro bullish path the drop on Thursday, September 29th was a corrective wave b down to be followed … Read more
Natural Gas
has an attractive
macro long setup
December 2022 contract sits at the Green Target box, a support that should stop this decline. It has a very … Read more
RTY-mini:
the market
is about to turn up
On the 240 min chart of RTY-mini below you can see that it approached the Green Target box. Overnight RTY … Read more
ES-mini: MACRO UPDATE: A VERY BEARISH VS A VERY BULLISH SCENARIOS
ES-mini made a new low of the 2022 year and it starts looking very oversold. Let’s discuss two main macro … Read more
I expect ES-mini to test 3,600 level before it reverses up and starts a bigger bounce
This morning we got another a-b-c up pullback that can be counted as a micro wave iv up to be … Read more
ES-mini is about to make a new lower low of 2022
I expect bears to violate the June 2022 low made at 3,655.75 and hit the Green Target box If then … Read more
RTY Weekend Update
Let’s start from a very bearish “consensus” scenario: Under that count RTY follows the most common simple (A) down, (B) … Read more
USD index has hit the target and can play a quick pullback
25 September 2022 DXY (USD index) hit a textbook target for a micro wave 3 of (C) of (3) up … Read more