TVIX - played out the expected rally but I have doubts it has legs to go much higher
Last night I posted a bearish count on ES-mini and added a bullish chart for TVIX (see below).
I noted that TVIX in general is more predictable that ES itself and every time we have several different scenarios in ES I favor those that are inversely correlated with count in TVIX.
On the chart below I showed two alternative paths, the red and the black. When two main alternative scenarios point one way it creates strong directional bias and becomes a reliable trading setup.
TVIX - 120 min updated at 1.29 AM on 8-15-2019
As you can see on the updated chart below, TVIX rallied almost to the point where the red path is about to reverse lower. Under the red path that wave c of ( b ) up may extend to 24.30 before dropping back again to 14.90 – 12.60 (the Green Support Zone).
We still have that potential bullish black path. It implies move higher in wave c of v. However, as I mentioned in the overnight update, this count has a serious flaw. Specifically, wave got too low and the following rally in wave a of v looks too weak. That is why I consider the red path as a much more probable scenario. That confirms my expectation for a corrective wave b up in ES-mini.
TVIX - 120 min updated at 5.30 PM on 8-15-2019
ES still keeps a bullish count alive. We may see another bullish pullback in subwave b up followed by one more push down in subwave c down. That a-b-c move down of the top made by a spiky move up on Tuesday, August 13, 2019 will be counted as completion of a corrective wave ii down structured as the Double Three corrective pattern.
ES - 240 min chart updated at 5-48 PM on 8-15-2019
Previous Updates:
Important Disclaimer
CastAway Trader LLC, the publisher of this web-site and videos is not registered as an investment adviser nor a broker/dealer with either the U. S. Securities & Exchange Commission or any state securities regulatory authority. Users of the website www.castawaytrader.com and viewers of the videos are advised that all information presented on the website is solely for informational purposes, is not intended to be used as a personalized investment recommendation, and is not attuned to any specific portfolio or to any user’s particular investment needs or objectives.
Trading stocks, options, or futures carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade, you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. CastAway Trader LLC provides general overview of trading methods that does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. The content of this website must not be construed as personal advice. All trading setups and/or trades presented in the web site and/or trading chat room by CastAway Trader an/or by other members of the chat should be considered hypothetical for educational purposes only and should not be expected to be replicated in a live trading account.
An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. You should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style.
You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading. You should seek advice from an independent financial advisor.
Any information posted on this web site is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All users of the website must determine for themselves what specific investments to make or not make and are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment decision. The reader bears responsibility for his/her own investment research and decisions, should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment, and investigate and fully understand any and all risks before investing. All opinions, analyses and information posted on the website are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but should be independently verified, and no representation or warranty of any kind, express or implied, is made, including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, CastAwayTrader LLC and its officers and employees undertake no responsibility to notify such opinions, analyses or information or to keep such opinions, analyses or information current. Also be aware that the owners, officers and employees of the web site www.castawaytrader.com may have long or short positions in securities that may be discussed on the website, Premium Trading Chat room and/or in the videos posted by CastAway Trader LLC.
Past results are not indicative of future profits.