TVIX - to make a bottoming picture ideal we may get a new lower low under 12.00
We saw the previous large pullback in TVIX on May 9, 2019. back then it topped at 31.86.
To catch a bottom of a down structure that has been unfolding since then we should identify a structure in play and then micro count the final impulsive structure of the final leg down.
The main macro count implies that the top made in May 2019 was a corrective wave 4 up followed by A-B-C decline of wave 5 down.
Because TVIX is a dangerous instrument to trade I may make a case when instead of the final A-B-C down we are dealing with an impulsive wave down started in May 2019. Under that bearish scenario we are here working on a bottoming wave ( iii ) down. It is extremely difficult to nail a major bottom in TVIX to catch a huge rally. But if we take a cautious approach of nailing temporary bottoms that could generate 20-30% rallies that simpe task is easier to accomplish.
TVIX - 15 min chart updated at 4.30 AM on 7-26-2019 (overview)
On the chart below we can see that going really micro we may justify need for one more drop to a new lower low.
That drop to a lower low would make a bottoming picture ideal. However, I should note that in 50% of cases that nominal lower low never comes.
When we track long extended moves we are always tempted to go micro micro in hope to nail the very bottom by counting micro squiggles inside wave c of of ( c ) of ( v ).
But often enough when we take our eyes off the main prize which is a pullback of a bigger degree and focus entirely on micro squiggles we miss that bigger long expected move
TVIX - 15 min chart updated at 4.30 AM on 7-26-2019 (zoom-in)
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