SPY - no change in my bullish medium-term bias
Looking at structure of a rally started in Dec’18 I can say it does not look completed.
It needs one more push higher in wave ( c ) of ( v ) up targeting a new All Time High that would finally complete a rally started in Dec’2018.
But before we start that final subwave ( c ) of ( v ) up we first need to complete the current corrective subwave ( b ) of ( v ) down.
Let’s zoom-in to see details of that corrective subwave ( b ) down.
SPY - 60 min chart updated on 8-4-2019
So far this micro a-b-c structure looks like a textbook wave ( b ) down.
It has been following the Expanded Flat corrective fractal.
Here we see that subwave c has already tagged 223.6% ext of subwave a.
This is a very common and reliable extension that normally terminates subwave c and concludes the whole corrective wave ( b ) down.
However, sometimes subwave c of ( b ) down may extend lower to 276.4% extension.
For SPY 276.4% ext will be equal to 289.00
At the same time we should check common retracement ratios of wave ( a ) up.
50% retracement = 287.80
61.8% retracement = 284.37
So far I do not see strong clusters of targets formed by extension of wave a of ( b ) down and retracement levels of wave ( a ) up.
SPY - 60 min chart updated on 8-4-2019 ( zoom-in to micro )
I have the very same count for ES mini. I count this drop as subwave c of ( b ) down. It has already tagged 223.6% ext but after a brief pullback u may make another lower low targeting 276.4% ext (2,883.50).
Again, as soon as this wave c of ( b ) down finally bottoms we should get another rally in wave ( c ) of ( v ) that should make a new all time high.
ES - 240 min chart updated at 4.30 PM on 8-4-2019
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