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S&P is about to complete the whole structure of the rally started in 2009

On a weekly chart of the cash S&P index we can count enough waves to consider its structure complete. As you can see, the final push up has overshot the overhead trend line that managed to keep S&P inside an upward  sloped channel for years. That is a normal phenomenon when the market makes the final exhaustion thrust after multi year rally. The paradox is that the final segment of the rally is when retail investors who have been sitting on sidelines go all in. This is why very often final push higher is accompanied by very light trading volume. As analysts like to say “the market goes up on fumes”.

S&P - weekly chart updated as of Friday, April 16th, close

On a daily chart below I show a micro structure of the final leg up in subwave (C) of wave ( 5 ) up that started back in June 2020. That rally should be subdivided into five waves and we can perfectly count those waves completed.

S&P - daily chart updated as of Friday, April 16th, close

On 30 min chart below I show a micro (a)-(b)-(c) up structure of the final micro wave ( v ) of ( C ) of ( 5 ).

That micro wave -v- up has made a new higher high but it looks small in comparison to wave -i- up.

If that micro wave -v- up stretches to 76% ext of wave -i- up that returns a target 4,215.

If that micro wave -v- up stretches to 100% ext of wave -i- up that returns a target 4,244.50.

There are more important fibs out there.

123.6% ext of subwave (A) of wave ( 5 ) up = 4,254.75

76.4% ext of waves (i) + ( iii ) combined projected from the low made by wave ( iv ) down = 4,284

123.6% ext of subwave (a) of wave ( v ) up = 4,178.69

The next Gann’s resistance is 4,227.

Different forecasting methods return different targets in a range from 4,178 to 4,284.

However, despite a structure of the rally that looks complete, we should remember that S&P keeps making higher highs and higher lows.

Until bears manage to make a lower low under the last micro low pivot at 4,121.20 (cash index) direction of the path of the least resistance will remain up.

A reasonable shorting setup would be to fade the first pullback making a lower high following the first decline breaking under 4,121,20.

S&P - 30 min chart updated as of Friday, April 16th, close

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