S&P 500 - the major top in the market is not far away
On a monthly chart of S&P 500 below you can see that S&P 500 has been perfectly following the Five Wave up fractal. You can see that S&P 500 is about to make a major top in the strongest part of the rally in subwave ( C ) of ( 3 ) up.
S&P 500 - Monthly Chart updated on 12-03-2019
Below you can see the current location of S&P 500 on a large macro Five Wave up fractal started at the lows of 2009.
To complete that large subwave ( C ) of wave ( 3 ) up S&P has to complete five waves up started at the August 2019 low. It can top around 3,265. That would be the minimum 76.4% extension of wave A of 5. As shown on the Model chart above, wave ( 4 ) down should subdivide into three legs, subwaves (A) down, ( B ) up and, finally, ( C ) down. In theory S&P may top in that large wave ( 3 ) up by the end of January 2020. Then the question is how long that large corrective wave ( 4 ) down will take.
Because its ultimate target is to re-test Dec 2018 lows ( 2,346 ).
The first leg down in subwave ( A ) of wave ( 4 ) down may take 1- 4 weeks and should target 23.6% retracement at 2,750.
The following corrective wave ( B ) up of wave ( 4 ) down may take 1 – 2 weeks. But the final leg down in subwave ( C ) of wave ( 4 ) down may take months.
Do not get bearish just because you know the top is close. First, that is a monthly chart. And ES may need several more months to complete the rally. Second, we will be able to pinpoint a termination point of this large rally in subwave ( C ) of wave ( 3 ) up by focusing on the structure of the rally started in August 2019.
S&P 500 - Daily Chart updated on 12-03-2019
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