CastAway Trader
CastAway Trader Predict the Next Market Move

NQ - even the market does not know what path it will choose

My primary count continues to consider this move up as a corrective subwave -B- up of wave -4- down.

NQ - "Bearish" Daily chart updated at 8-30 PM on 9-28-2002

As you can see on 240 min chart below that wave -B- up is structured as (a)-(b)-(c) up.
And in any corrective (a)-(b)-(c) structure the final subwave ( c ) should be composed of five micro waves.
This evening NQ is testing 176.4% ext of wave i up, a typical extension for wave iii up.
The Ideal scenario is to get a pullback in wave iv down to 11,215 followed by another push higher in wave v up targeting the Red Target box that starts from 11,560.

NQ - "Bearish" 240 min chart updated at 8-30 PM on 9-28-2002

Now I want to show you a bullish alternative.
Normally wave -4- is structured as a clean -A-B-C-. However, from time to time we see waves 4 down structured as monowaves.
I tend to consider those cases exceptions.
On the bullish chart below NQ closed a daily candle over the daily resistance and turned the daily trend up (see the candles changed color from red to green).
The last top made at 12,452 made on Sep 2 could hardly be the TOP.
It looks like a top of some wave -3- up.
It was followed by a decent pullback that retraced 41.4% of the rally, a typical retracement for wave 4.
That low could be all of wave -4- down. Again, the micro structure does not confirm that. But it was deep enough, hit the typical 41.4% retracement ratio and stopped at my Double Green Demand channel.
Under that bullish Alt scenario NQ may rally hard in subwave -A- of wave -5- up targeting the previous high made at 12,400.
Unfortunately, we have to consider both counts as feasible alternative scenarios. We will keep collecting evidence in favor of each scenario in order to give more credence to one of them.

NQ - "Bullish" Daily chart updated at 8-30 PM on 9-28-2002

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