NQ - comparison of a mcro bullish and macro bearish scenarios
Let’s compare two macro scenarios, the Bearish and the Bullish ones.
Under the Bearish scenario shown below this decline is the part of a large subwave -C- of wave -4- down.
I am starting to have doubts about that Macro bearish scenario for the following reasons.
Any impulsive decline in subwave C of a corrective A-B-C structure should have an impulsive count. It means it should start with ( i ) down – ( ii ) up structure.
Apparently we have not seen any pullback that was big enough to be considered wave ( ii ) up.
If that is still wave ( i ) down then it became too large to allow the following moves down in wave ( iii ) and ( v ) down to unfold.
Even under a “compressed” structure wave ( v) down has to taregt 176.4% ext of wave ( i ) down.
Even if wave ( ii ) up would be very deep and push NQ back to 12,000 wave ( v ) down would have to drop to 9,000, 176.4% ext of wave ( i ) down projected from the expected top of wave ( ii ) up.
But the critical support for wave -4- down is located at 9,355.
Moreover, the point of no return, 66.7% retracement on wave -3- up is located at 9,833.
This is why that bearish setup looks unreasonable to me.
NQ - Daily "Bearish" chart updated at 9-15 AM on 10-27-2020
NQ - Daily "Bullish" chart updated at 9-15 AM on 10-27-2020
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