CastAway Trader
CastAway Trader Predict the Next Market Move

ES - bulls have taken out all resistance level and killed the bearish scenario

Yesterday night ES violated the resistance at 3.410 and that was the tell of an upcoming strong rally.

This morning bulls have taken another meaningful resistance at 3,462. At this point I run out of arguments in favor of the bearish scenario. Let’ see how we can count this unfolding rally.

On a micro scale it can be counted as an unfolding strong rally in subwave (c) of wave ( iii ) up:

ES - 30 min chart updated at 12-30 PM on 11-04-2020

On a macro scale where could be several interpretations of the previous high made at 3,576.75 on Sep 2nd and the following lower high made at 3,541 on Oct 12th.

If the -A-B-C- down move off the Sep high was a corrective wave ( B ) down then we watch a micro wave ( i ) up of a new strong multi-month rally in wave (C) up.

ES - 240 min chart updated at 12-30 PM on 11-04-2020

However, if we look at SPY, we can see that it needs one more rally to a new all time high to complete some -A-B-C up structure off the low made in March 2020. In any of those case ES/SPX/SPY have room to go higher after they solidly invalidated the bearish scenario.

SPY - 120 min chart updated at 12-30 PM on 11-04-2020

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