ES & NQ - on the way to a lower low
I have been talking the whole day about incomplete look of the corrective structure.
My thesis has been that both NQ and ES need to make one more push lower in subwave C of wave 5 down.
At this point we should look for one of the two scenarios below to play out:
1. A Perfect completion of the whole corrective structure that started off the February 2020 top.
We should expect an impulsive decline structured as five wave down fractal off the top made at 7,537 at 12:21 PM on Tuesday.
That decline may target from 76.4% extension of subwave A of wave 5 down to 123.6%, 176.4%, 200% or even 223.6%.
We will be looking for confluence of one of those extensions and signs of completion of the five wave down structure.
2. Imperfect completion.
To confirm completion of this downside structure and significantly diminish chances for one more lower low we need bulls to take out the Tuesday top at 7,537.
The primary scenario remains no.1, the perfect completion.
NQ - 9,000 tick bar chart updated at 9-34 PM on 3-17-2020
The very same comments are fully applied to the chart of ES-mini shown below, As long ES stays under its critical resistance, the top made at 2,533.25 I am looking for it to make a new lower low in the very final push down in subwave ( c ) of wave ( v ) down.
ES - 4,500 tick bar chart updated at 9-44 PM on 3-17-2020
Now lets talk about a bigger picture. My subscribers of the Premium Chat tortured me with one question. Can we count that corrective A-B-C move down off the February 2020 top as the whole corrective wave ( 4 ) down or only its first leg in subwave ( A ) of wave ( 4 ) down.
My answer is that at this point we can not be sure about correct answer to this question. We will have to live with that uncertainty for some time.
I am willing to accept that uncertainty because once we get one more lower low completing the structure in BOTH scenarios we may get at least 50% retracement of the whole drop.
Once drop completes and we get a pullback we will look at its structure to collect evidence in favor of one of those two alternative scenarios.
If we get one more lower low I will be looking for a long entry
So far nothing tells us the market HAS bottomed.
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