ES - look at a bigger picture
Let me first remind you how the Five Wave Up fractal looks. ES has been following that fractal since the lows made in 2009.
We have a good alignment with the model if we count the top made in September 2018 as the top of wave 3. And subsequent corrective decline that bottomed in December 2018 was wave 4 down.
Off the December 2018 low we should get the very final macro A-B-C move up in wave 5 up.
I believe wave A of 5 topped at 3,025 on July 15, 2019. And since then we have been in a corrective wave B down. As you can see on the model below, that wave B down has to be subdivided into ( a ) down, b ( up ) and, finally, ( c ) down. Now lets scroll down to see the actual chart of ES-mini.
The Five Wave Up Model aligned with ES-mini as of 12 September 2019
You can see the top of the blue wave A up made in July and a sharp drop in wave ( a ) of B down. That wave ( a ) of B down bottomed at 2,777.50 on August 5, 2019.
Since then we have been in a corrective looking move up. It is clearly structured as (a)-(b)-(c) up ( see the black labels). Here ( c ) = 123.6% of ( a ).
As soon as wave ( b ) of B finds it top we should get a strong decline comparable in size to the drop we saw in early August 2019. Most likely that drop will go under the low made in early August 2019.
ES - 240 min chart updated at 10-01 PM on 12 Sep 2019
Looking at a micro count of ES I can see a very completed structure inside the final subwave ( c ) of that blue wave ( b ) up of B down. Moreover, we have got the first impulsive drop off the top made on Thursday. I can count that drop as a micro subwave a of wave i down. That red a down is followed by a corrective looking b up. That lets you expect another move lower overnight in subwave c of i down (red labels).
ES - 5 min chart updated at 10-01 PM on 12 Sep 2019
Previous Updates:
Important Disclaimer
CastAway Trader LLC, the publisher of this web-site and videos is not registered as an investment adviser nor a broker/dealer with either the U. S. Securities & Exchange Commission or any state securities regulatory authority. Users of the website www.castawaytrader.com and viewers of the videos are advised that all information presented on the website is solely for informational purposes, is not intended to be used as a personalized investment recommendation, and is not attuned to any specific portfolio or to any user’s particular investment needs or objectives.
Trading stocks, options, or futures carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade, you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. CastAway Trader LLC provides general overview of trading methods that does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. The content of this website must not be construed as personal advice. All trading setups and/or trades presented in the web site and/or trading chat room by CastAway Trader an/or by other members of the chat should be considered hypothetical for educational purposes only and should not be expected to be replicated in a live trading account.
An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. You should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style.
You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading. You should seek advice from an independent financial advisor.
Any information posted on this web site is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All users of the website must determine for themselves what specific investments to make or not make and are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment decision. The reader bears responsibility for his/her own investment research and decisions, should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment, and investigate and fully understand any and all risks before investing. All opinions, analyses and information posted on the website are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but should be independently verified, and no representation or warranty of any kind, express or implied, is made, including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, CastAwayTrader LLC and its officers and employees undertake no responsibility to notify such opinions, analyses or information or to keep such opinions, analyses or information current. Also be aware that the owners, officers and employees of the web site www.castawaytrader.com may have long or short positions in securities that may be discussed on the website, Premium Trading Chat room and/or in the videos posted by CastAway Trader LLC.
Past results are not indicative of future profits.