ES - keeps rallying as expected
Nothing changed in the bigger picture. We deal with initial phase of a rally in wave ( c ) of ( 5 ) up that is supposed to complete a larger five wave up fractal, wave ( A ) of ( 5 ) that keeps going since the lows made in Dec’2018.
As I mentioned before, the first meaningful resistance for this rally will be around 3,020, the top of the previous rally in wave ( a ) of ( v ).
That resistance may only produce a temporary pullback because the true destination fro this rally is a new all time high.
At this point counting does not produce any reliable count for ES.
The next time I start talking about shorting ES will be when we get any completed five wave up structure. Meantime I will be watching micro counts of TVIX and VXX (see below). When they reach they prospective Demand Zones probability of a bearish temporary pullback in ES/SPX/SPY will increase.
ES - 240 min updated at 3-05 AM on 8-19-2019
If I disregard overnight session in VXX I will be able to count perfect five waves up off the low made by VXX at 21.41 on July 24.
If we deal with a completed Five Wave up fractal, then the first immediate target for a bearish pullback will be the Green Demand Zone formed by two retracement levels, 41.4% and 50% of the whole five wave rally. Normally the first drop targets either the bottom of wave b of v or the low made by wave iv down. Finally, as you can see on the VXX chart below, we have a double magenta 1,000 MA climbing into that zone. Price may find support at this MA.
This is what we should watch. As soon as VXX lands into the Green Target Box we may get a bearish pullback in ES/SPX/SPY.
VXX - 3,500 tick bar chart updated at 3-00 AM on 8-9-2019
If I apply the same trick to TVIX and disregard overnight low liquidity sessions, then I can also get a completed five wave up fractal.
And in the very same way I can come up with a Green Demand zone that could stop the first leg down in TVIX.
TVIX - 15 min chart updated at 3-00 AM on 8-19-2019
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