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ES - I have two very different counts. But I would rather rely on a positive seasonality starting the next week

We still have two different scenarios. The Bearish one is shown below.
The bearish scenario argues for decline to 4,560.

ES - 30 min chart updated at 9-20 PM on 11-15-2021

The Bullish count is shown below.
Under the bullish count the quick and shallow a-b-c down move we had last week was all of a micro wave iv down.

Under that bullish count bulls should re-test the previously made all time high around 4,712 and then produce another micro pullback to 4,670 – 4,650 that would set up a bears’ trap.

And that bears’ trap would be followed by the final push higher to 4,770 – 4,810.

At this point in time I do not have any strong arguments that would let me call any of those scenarios a high probability one.

ES - 30 min chart updated at 9-20 PM on 11-15-2021

This is how 5 years average seasonality looks like for SPY (see below).
The next tradeable setup is going long on weakness before Thanksgiving into the following first December Friday.

That is a seasonal trade with robust winning rate:

We go long at the close the Monday prior to Thanksgiving.

There are 28 trades, the average gain is 0.82%, the win ratio is 65%, the profit factor is 2.72.

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