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Bears need to push ES under 4,667. Until that happens the path of the least resistance will remain up

Last week bears failed to turn SPY down again.

They managed to close SPY under the immediate support of EMA 8 for two days in a row but on Friday bulls fought back and produced a strong rally.

SPY Daily chart updated on 11-12-2021

On a micro scale I can count the five wave up rally off early October low as having completed.
The decline that followed last week had a corrective a-b-c down structure but was too shallow to be considered the whole pullback in wave b) of ( v ).
Most likely it was only the first leg down of that correction.

And the a-b-c move up that we got at the end of the last week looks like a corrective bounce in wave -b- up.

ES - 30 min chart updated at 7-50 PM on 11-14-2021

That move up in subwave -b- up has already retraced 66.7% of the preceding decline.

That is a normal retrace for a corrective pullback.

But I can not exclude possibility for that bounce to stretch higher, to 4,700.

Unfortunately, this setup can not be considered as a reliable short setup. ES/SPY has been trending strongly and bullish momentum can keep pushing it higher.

To confirm that bearish count, completion of subwave -b- up and start of another leg down at the very least Bears need to break under 4,667.25

Until that happens we can not exclude possibility for bulls to make a new all time high even under that bearish count.

ES - 30 min chart updated at 7-50 PM on 11-14-2021

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