CastAway Trader
CastAway Trader Predict the Next Market Move

ES - do not confuse this move up with the start of the Christmas rally!

Let’s talk about how we can fit that November rally into a macro count.

The main uncertainty we have is how to count the Sep 2020 top made at 3,576.76.

We can count it as a top of five wave up rally that started in mid March 2020.
You can see the blue label (c) of ( v ) of ( A).

What I do not like about that count is a way too extended subwave (c) of wave ( v ) up.

That extended run really looks like subwave ( c ) of wave ( iii ) up.

Then the top made in Sep 2020 was wave ( iii ) up of the rally started in mid March 2020 (see the alt black labels).

Under that black alt count decline that bottomed at 3,198 on Sep 24, 2020 was wave ( iv ) down (see the black labels).

ES - 240 min chart updated at 8-00 PM on 11-08-2020

Then another push up that topped at 3,541 on 12 Oct 2020 could be counted as subwave (a) of wave ( v ) up.

And the drop that followed was subwave ( b ) of wave ( v ) up ( see the alt black labels).

In conclusion:

The blue “Uber Bullish” count:

This is the count that considers this current five wave up move off the low made at 3,225 on 30 Oct 2020 as wave ( i ) up of a new large rally in wave ( C ) up.

After it tops we can get a quick pullback in wave ( ii ) down that could be as shallow as a quick decline to 3,455 – 3,421.

That ( i ) up – ( ii ) down setup would deliver a very strong Santa’s rally later this year.

The Alt Black scenario:

Under the alt Black scenario we are watching the very last grasp of the rally that has been running since the March 2020 low.

Specifically that could be subwave ( c ) of wave ( v ) up of a large wave (A) up. Under that alt count Es may decline to 3,300after testing the Red Target box shown on the chart below.

ES - 240 min chart updated at 8-00 PM on 11-08-2020

Under both scenarios this rally will not be able to extend into a major Santa’s rally.
It is about to top somewhere from 3,580 to 3,620 – 3,646.
The strength and structure of the pullback that will follow will tell us what scenario we are in. Under the alt black scenario we will not get any Santa’s rally this year.

ES - 30 min chart updated at 8-00 PM on 11-08-2020

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