ES - we still have two bullish scenarios
ES invalidated the bearish scenario and we get back to two bullish ones we discussed on Sunday evening.
We do have a bullish scenario that is based on the assumption that a corrective pullback bottomed and a new rally started. The target for this rally is re-test of the previous high made in early September 2021.
However, the micro structure of the September correction, specifically its second leg was not completed in a perfect way. On the one hand, it happens quite regularly. Any corrective structure is a product of fight of two forces, bulls and bears. And this is why we have so many variations of potential paths when w track a pullback. In contrast, when the market is moving along the impulsive structure there is only one prevailing force (bulls for up trends and bears for downtrends). And this is why there is only one repeating fractal for impulsive rallies.
The next important resistance is 4,420-4,430. Bulls need to break over that red trend line (shown on the chart below) to make the bullish scenario more probable.
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