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CastAway Trader Predict the Next Market Move

ES - can this wave ( iii ) down extend lower?

Most likely we have been dealing with a corrective large -A-B-C- down structure off the top made by ES-mini at 3,576.76 on Sep 2nd, 2020.
The final leg down in wave -C- should have an impulsive structure. That means we need to identify full five micro waves completed before we can call that wave -C- down bottomed.
Last week we most likely got micro wave ( iii ) down inside that wave -C- down, the strongest part of the decline
The most important question for any trader who attempts to take a countertrend trade is whether wave ( iii ) down is over.
The minimum target for wave ( iii ) in an impulsive structure is 176.4% ext of wave ( i ) down.
Inside wave -C- of a corrective -A-B-C- structure wave (iii) may bottom at 123.6% ext of wave ( i ) down.
Last Friday ES stopped right at 176.4% ext of wave ( i ) down.

ES - 240 min chart updated as of 6-00 PM on 10-30-2020

I can count enough micro waves to argue that wave ( iii ) down bottomed on Friday.

Off the low of wave ( iii ) down ES is supposed to make a corrective (a)-(b)-(c) up bounce.

The whipsaw we saw on Friday’s afternoon perfectly fits that corrective pattern.

First we see a move up in subwave ( a ) up followed by subwave (b) down.

The spiky move up at close on Friday could be a micro wave i up in an impulsive structure of subwave (c) up of wave ( iv ) up.

Under hat micro count we can expect a weakness on open of a trading session on Sunday night open.

If bulls manage to hold ES over 3,225 tonight we will be able to call a pullback on Sunday night as a micro wave ii down. According to that scenario subwave (c) of wave ( iv ) up may stretch to 3,344.
What if that 3,225 low does not hold tonight?

Then ES may quickly slide down to 3,161.50 – 3,154.50, a strong confluence of

– 223.6% ext of wave ( i ) down, and

– 100% ext of wave -A- down.

And that move down will be an extension of wave ( iii ) down.

That means such an extension of the strong decline we saw last week should be followed by a relatively large corrective wave ( iv ) up structure as (a)-(b)-(c) up where the first leg up in subwave (a) of wave ( iv ) up would be able to go up from 3,155 to 3.250.
In any of the scenarios we discussed above we would need another decline in wave ( v ) down that would complete the whole large -A-B-C down structure and set the stage for another strong rally in subwave (C) of wave ( 5 ) up targeting a new all time high.

ES - 30 min chart updated as of 6-00 PM on 10-30-2020

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