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ES - bears need to break under 4,100 to prove their intentions

Yesterday I shared with you two scenarios, bullish and bearish. Both scenarios argue for ES/SPX to move down at least to 4,120 – 4,100.

We have got that move down and SPX has almost hit the Green Target box by 4 PM.

SPX - 15 min chart updated at 4-00 PM on 5-18-2021

ES has hit 50% retracement at 4,104.75.

As I mentioned this morning, a corrective looking a-b-c move down into 4,100 can be used by bulls as a launchpad for another push higher.

To negate that bullish alt scenario bulls have to break under 4,100 and continue pushing ES down.
What bulls can like here?
let’s try to collect arguments in favor of a bullish resolution.

1. The move down that bottomed at 4,029 had an a-b-c down structure last Friday. That could be another pullback to be followed by another a-b-c move up where wave c up should make a new all time high.

2. The move up off the low made last Friday went much higher than 66.7% retracement, a typical point of no return distinguishing a corrective bounce in wave ( b ) up from wave a up of a new a-b-c move up. 3. Decline that we got on Tuesday evening so far stopped right at 50% retracement, a typical target for a standard corrective pullback.

What are bears’ arguments?

1. The move down that bottomed at 4,029 had an a-b-c down structure. Bulls believe its wave i down that should be followed by a corrective a-b-c up bounce in a corrective wave ii up making a lower high.

2. The move up off the low made last Friday made a lower high and had a clean a-b-c structure. If that was wave a up of a bullish a-b-c then we would get an impulsive structure of that move up.

In conclusion, I really need bears to crack under the ice of support located at 4,100. Until then bulls will have more arguments in favor of their bullish scenario.

ES - 15 min chart updated at 9-50 PM on 5-18-2021

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