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ES - both counts, the bearish and the bullish ones, argue for a push lower

Overnight bulls managed to overshoot my Red Target box but then they dropped the ball and ES leaked under that Red Box again.

However that overnight push higher invalidated a promising bearish micro i down , ii up setup.
As long as bears hold ES under pre-market high made at 4,716.75 they will be able to provide another push down as expected by the Bearish count.

ES - 30 min chart updated at 8-44 AM on 11-22-2021

Because today is the day when another period of bullish seasonality starts we should watch a bullish scenario (see below) that argues that subwave b down has completed and a new rally in subwave c of wave v up started.

The Bullish count argues that a new rally in subwave c of wave v up has been underway.

But any five wave up rally starts from a micro i up, ii down setup.

We got a rally that made a new all time high that we can count as a micro wave i up but the drop that followed lacked a-b-c subdivision.

This is why even that bullish count argues for one more push down in subwave c of wave ii up making a higher low over the starting point of wave i up at 4,668.

A target for wave iii up is 4,753.
If bulls manage to push ES over the top of wave i up made at 4,723.50 that will most likely mean wave ii down has bottomed and wave iii up is underway.

ES - 30 min chart updated at 8-44 AM on 11-22-2021

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