ES - path for a rally to a new all time high
In my previous update I showed you a very big picture based on a monthly chart of S&P 500 cash index. I explained that as soon as the rally that started at 2,822.12, the low made in August 2019, completes the Five Wave up fractal the large rally in subwave ( C ) of wave ( 3 ) up. And the following decline in subwave ( A ) of wave ( 4 ) down is expected to hit 2,750. Now you better understand significance of tracking the five wave up structure shown on ES-mini 240 min chart below. We have two alternative micro counts. The chart below shows a count where ES completed a minor pullback in wave iv down and needs to push one more time in wave v up that will complete larger wave ( iii ) up. Another alternative is that wave ( iii ) up has topped and that drop is the first leg down in subwave ( a ) down of wave ( iv ) down. Under both counts ES is expected to keep going higher at least to 3,110 – 3,120. Under the count where the top of wave ( iii ) is in that move up to 3,110 would be a corrective subwave ( b ) up followed by another decline in subwave ( c ) down. And under the bullish count shown below ES should keep moving higher towards 3,200 where the top of ( iii ) will be made,
ES - 240 min chart updated at 12.30 AM on 12-4-2019
The micro count below is based on the bullish count shown above where the drop on Tuesday was all of corrective wave iv down. I count the move up off the low made on Tuesday as an impulsive wave. Under that micro count Es may test 3,100 in subwave a of wave iii up and then play pullback into Wednesday open in subwave b down of wave iii up targeting 3,085 – 3,080. Then ES may push price to 3,120 in subwave c of wave iii up.
ES - 4,500 tick bar chart updated at 12-30 AM on 12-04-2019
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