ES - its place in the macro fractal
On a fragment of the Model of the Five Wave Up fractal below you can see that ES/S&P topped in wave A of 5 in July 2019.
Since then it has been in a corrective wave B of 5 down.
You can see that I highlighted that wave B of 5 with thick red lines. It is shaped as ( a ) – ( b ) – ( c ) structure.
Let’s zoom in so you can see micro structure of that ( a ) – ( b ) – ( c ). By that moment we left behind subwave ( a ) down and subwave ( b ) up. Moreover we have completed micro wave i down and this afternoon we have been working on subwave a of micro wave ii up ( see the yellow arrow showing the current position in this fractal). The main takeaway from this Model chart is that ES is going to spend more time in the area between 3,000 and 2,960 before micro wave ii up is completed. Now lets scroll down to see the actual chart of Es-mini.
In theory ES can make a slightly higher high to top in the first leg up, subwave ( a ) up of a corrective wave ( ii ) up
After subwave ( a ) up we should get a-b-c move down in subwave ( b ) down.
That subwave ( b ) down may come as a deep move down and retest the meaningful support at 2,960. I do not say it will do that but very often subwave ( b ) of ( ii ) comes as a deep retrace of preceding move in subwave ( a ) of wave ( ii ), And after that pullback in subwave ( b ) we may get another strong move up in the final subwave ( c ) up. It can go over 3,000.
That count implies that ES will be trading in a range between 3,000 and 2,960. After completion of that corrective wave ( ii ) up we should get a stronger drop in wave ( a ) of ( iii ) under 2,950.
ES - 4,500 tick bar chart updated at 10-20 PM on 25 Sep 2019
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