ES - waiting for alignment of several scenarios
My primary macro scenario remains the same. The rally started in Dec’2018 has not topped and still needs another push higher in subwave ( c ) of ( v ) that is supposed to make a new higher high of 2019. The (a)-(b)-(c) drop started at the top made in mid July looks like a completed corrective wave ( b ) down.
That implies the a-b-c move up that topped at 2,940.75 on 08-09-19 looks like wave i up and the another a-b-c down decline happened this week may be a completed wave ii down. Then a strong move up we saw yesterday is the beginning of wave a of iii. That scenarios is almost flawless. The only red flag is the deep drop in subwave ( c ) last Monday. However that drop did not break under its critical support at 2,732.
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Please be informed I will be flying today. My flight departs at 6.30 AM EST and I may arrive to my hotel in Greece around 2 PM EST. There will be interned connection on my flight and I will try to post an update around 10 AM EST.
ES - 120 min chart updated at 1-25 AM on 8-14-2019
Below I can offer a slightly different micro count where the push higher yesterday was a part of a corrective wave ii structured as the Double Three. In general, I do not trust that type of vertical moves ignited by breaking news especially at the starting stage of wave a of iii. That makes me consider a slightly bearish alternative count which implies ES may decline again in a-b-c down.
ES - 120 min chart updated at 1-25 AM on 8-14-2019
Because TVIX normally gives us cleaner counts and in general is more predictable than ES I always try to find confirmation of my counts in TVIX.
For TVIX I can see two slightly different bullish scenarios. Again, at this point we have a number of different outcomes. And that variability does not make a good trading setup. If ES produces that a-b-c decline that could be another interesting LONG setup.
TVIX - 120 min chart updated at 1-29 AM on 8-14-2019
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