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NVR - not clear if it has bottomed

NVR is one of the largest homebuilders in the United States. The company builds single-family detached homes, town homes, and condominium buildings. 

This company is profitable and is a monster generator of a massive free cash flow. And its stock is very cheap now. It has Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow ratio at 10.3 and Free-Cash-Flow-Yield of 7.37%. 

I count the rally off the low in March 2009 as an unfolding five wave up structure.

The wave ( 3 ) up topped in January 2018. And off that top we saw a corrective looking decline in wave ( 4 ) down shaped as A-B-C simple zig-zag pattern. Under that pattern both legs of decline in wave A and C of ( 4 ) should have impulsive structure and subdivide into five smaller waves. And it is clear that the final leg down in the wave C of ( 4 ) does not have a completed structure. In particular the last bottom made in October 2018 looks like wave ( iii ) of C and the rally off that low looks like a corrective wave ( iv ) up. That means that we could get another drop to a new lower low in wave ( v ) of C. That drop may target 1,780 or even get as low as 1,510.

The critical support for the bullish structure is 1,495. I would be waiting for that another drop to go long.

NVR - Daily chart updated on 25 November 2018

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