CastAway Trader
CastAway Trader Predict the Next Market Move

Off the very top made by GLD at 185.85 in September 2011 it dropped in a clean impulsive structure.
That impulsive drop can not be the whole correction because its impulsive structure makes it only the first leg down in wave ( A ) down and suggests a corrective wave ( B ) up to follow.
GLD bottomed at 100.23 in December 2015.
Off that December 2015 low we see a clean A up – B down – C up structure.
It seems that GLD has a very completed structure of the final wave C up. That wave concludes that large corrective wave ( B ) up that lasted four years.
That wave 5 up can stretch higher.
We should focus on retracement ratios applied to that impulsive drop in wave ( A ) down.
In particular we see that GLD is approaching two main retracement ratios:
61.8% = 153.08, and
66.7% = 157.29.
Be aware that the long term picture is still bullish but the remaining upside is fairly limited.
In my opinion it is too early to start talking shorts in gold but the meaty part of this rally is over.

GLD - Weekly chart update on 1-8-2020

The move up off the low made at 111.10 on August 16, 2020 has an impulsive structure.
This rally is subwave A of wave 5 up.
It needs a pullback in a corrective subwave B down before the final push higher in subwave C of wave 5 up.

GLD - Daily chart update on 1-8-2020

Why we can not count that rally that started off the secondary higher low made at 111.10 in August 2016 as a constructive rally in a new impulsive wave?
Any impulsive structure should start from a completed corrective structure. When we gen an impulsive looking drop off the top in can not be considered a completed corrective structure. The drop off Sep 2011 top into December 2015 low can only be the first leg down under the Simple Zig-Zag structure ( see below ). And that rally we are dealing with now did not start off that major low. It started off the secondary higher low made in August 2016. That is why I count it as wave C up inside a corrective A-up, B-down, C up structure off the major low made in December 2015.

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