GDX - this corrective wave 4 down may take two different paths

I count the rally started off the low of $17.50 in September 2018 as an unfolding Five Wave Up structure. Then the top made at 23.70 in February 2019 is the top of the strongest part of the rally, wave 3 up. Based on those two assumptions we may conclude that GDX has been in a corrective wave 4 down since the top made in February.There are two most probable scenarios for that wave 4 down. The first one we may call “Bullish” because it implies that the price will stay in the 23-21 range following a triangle structure. 

GDX - 90 min chart updated at 9:13 AM on 18 April 2019

We can call the alternative scenario (please see the chart below) “Bearish” because it implies that this current wave C of 4 down may extend lower to retest 20.00 again.

Both scenarios imply continuation of the rally after this wave 4 down gets completed. The first target rally for this rally will be the previous top reached in February 2019 at 23.70.

GDX - 90 min chart updated at 9:13 AM on 18 April 2019

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