In my last update on ES posted on 19 January 2019 I pointed your attention that ES was testing the upper border of my resistance area at 2,676. Since then ES has dropped off that level and retested it once again but has been unable to break it.
I counted that rally off December 2018 low as (a)-(b)-(c) of a corrective wave 4 up. As long as ES stays under its critical resistance of 2,685 the bearish count is alive and implies another drop to a new lower low in wave 5 down (see the chart below ).
We should also take into account an alternative bullish scenario where the low made in December 2018 was the bottom of the large corrective wave ( 4 ) down. Then the rally off December 2018 low is wave ( i ) up of a new rally. And the current wave ( c ) up may indeed move higher and even take out that resistance at 2,685. Particularly it may target 123.6% extension at 2,695. But even under that alternative bullish count a pullback in a corrective wave ( ii ) down is unavoidable.