Crude - two short-term bearish scenarios are on the table

As expected, crude has been erratically moving up in a corrective wave.

I see two slightly different alternatives. In alternative scenario 1 (the left chart) wave ( a ) of ( v ) has not completed and now we are topping in a corrective wave iv up. From here we should go down to the green box to complete wave v of ( a ) of ( v ) down. This scenario is better for trading because you can short crude and set stop right above the high made today pre-market.

The second alternative ( chart on the right ) is that wave ( a ) of ( v ) is completed and we are still meandering in an ugly wave ( b ) of ( v ) up. Under that scenario we can see crude oil stretching higher into the red box before another decline will start. 

For the second scenario the stop is far away. And that makes this scenario too risky to trade. 

Crude - 45 min chart updated on 01/04/18

Crude - 45 min chart updated on 01/04/18

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