Crude - very deep pullback that so far respected the critical resistance

On December 24 I posted an update where I pointed to a coming pullback up in wave ( b ) up of ( v ) down. Back then my expectations were that the pullback would retrace 61.8% or 76.4% of the drop in wave ( a ) of ( v ).  In fact that pullback retraced more than 90% of that decline. There are two arguments in favor of the bearish count. First, crude so far was unable to breach the critical resistance at $53.54. Second, the structure off the December low (which I count as a bottom of the wave ( a ) of ( v ) ) looks corrective. At this point subwave c of wave ( b ) up stretched to 200% extension of subwave ( a ) which is a strong but not an unusual extension.

Crude oil - 45 min chart updated on 13 January 2019

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