In my last update on February 19 I warned bulls:
“Bitcoin has either completed or may make one more high at 4,120 to complete wave i up. Then we should get a corrective wave ii down. That pullback may be pretty deep targeting breakout point at 3,600. That is why I sold my position on Tuesday and will be waiting for a pullback to reload. That pullback may get 2 – 4 weeks. So stay tuned and be patient.”
Bitcoin has topped around 4,280 this night as a completed wave i up of ( c ) up off the December 2018 bottom.
Off that top we should a corrective wave ii down shaped as a-b-c.
This current drop into 3,820 is clearly only the first leg down in wave a of ii.
Despite the fact we should get a corrective wave b up and that could get as high as the previous top over 4,000 I would encourage you not to take your chances and wait for a corrective wave b up to top and then you may try to short Bitcoin for the final leg of corrective decline in wave c of ii down. The reason is that wave b is the least reliable wave. It can get as shallow as 23.6% of the preceding drop and you will not be able to close your long.
My overall expectations have not changed. The ideal target for that final decline in wave c of ii is between 3,610 and 3,530. This is where I will start loading bitcoin again. Because off that low we will see a rally in wave a of iii of ( c ) up that should target 4,550 – 4,650.