Bitcoin - its time to build long term longs

I had predicted the final drop of bitcoin slightly under $4,000 support for months. Back then many people strongly opposed to that scenario because for eight weeks from the first decade of September until the first decade of November bitcoin traded in a narrow range. Many traders who do not use wave analysis perceived that slow and narrow market as a sign of weakness of bears and completion of the move down started off the all time top in December 2017.

In contrast, for me it was clear that the structure was not completed and we should see the very final impulsive decline in wave ( c ) of (v ) of C of [ 4 ]. That final decline was supposed to drive panic among long term investors and retail guys who bought bitcoin over $15,000 when the crowd felt euphoria.

Two months forward bitcoin dropped under 4,000 and reached slightly lower levels than I expected. But that does not anyhow damages my long term scenario where that decline is the final move down.

There are two alternatives here. The basic scenario is that the last low was the bottom of the micro wave iii down. And from here we should see a corrective a-b-c move up in micro wave iv up. It can climb from here to 4,640-4,730 in that wave iv up. From there we may get a final decline to a new lower low in the micro wave v down. Such a drop may come as a spike over weekend. One of possible targets for the final decline would be 200% extension of the wave ( a ) down which is 2,460.

More bullish but less probable scenario is that the last low was the bottom of the micro wave v down and was THE BOTTOM of the whole decline off the top in Dec 2017. To confirm that scenario bitcoin should violate the first critical resistance at 5,750.

Under any of those two most probable scenarios we should get a nice corrective a-b-c move up from here.

Intel - Daily chart updated on 9 December 2018

Login