Subscription: Gold & Miners
Silver - I still do not think a new rally has started
Silver rallied off the mid March 2020 low in a clean ( a)-(b)-(c) up structure.
I labelled it as wave ( i ) up.
This structure is highlighted with a green box.
It topped at 19.02 on June 1st.
Off that low I expected to get wave ( ii ) down, a corrective (a)-(b)-(c) down structure.
It started nicely with a small a-b-c down (the red box).
The main question here is whether that small move down that retraced only 23.6% of the preceding rally in wave ( i ) up could be all of wave ( ii ) down.
My answer remains unchanged. I do not think that small pullback could be all of wave ( ii ) down. Corrective waves come either deep enough to scare bulls and make them doubt about continuation of the trend.
Or corrective wave may come as a correction through time.
The goal is the same. Bulls should start questioning their conviction if strength of the trend.
In that case that tine a-b-c- down move was neither deep enough nor lengthy enough to significantly change sentiment of the crowd.
I still think this move up of the low made by silver at 17.171 is a corrective wave ( b ) up.
The fact that this move up managed to make a higher high does not invalidate that count. Under the Expanded Flat or Running Flat corrective structures wave ( b ) up makes a new higher high over the top of the preceding impulsive move.
But I can not call it a good shorting setup.
If Silver declines in subwave ( c ) to complete wave ( ii ) down that would be a good long setup.
Even if it drops to 17.41 it will still be a shallow pullback but we would be able to consider it as “correction through time”.
That flat consolidation at the highs would be a good base for another push higher.
Silver - 120 min chart updated at 3-40 PM on 7-08-2020
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CastAway Trader LLC, the publisher of this web-site and videos is not registered as an investment adviser nor a broker/dealer with either the U. S. Securities & Exchange Commission or any state securities regulatory authority. Users of the website www.castawaytrader.com and viewers of the videos are advised that all information presented on the website is solely for informational purposes, is not intended to be used as a personalized investment recommendation, and is not attuned to any specific portfolio or to any user’s particular investment needs or objectives.
Trading stocks, options, or futures carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade, you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. CastAway Trader LLC provides general overview of trading methods that does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. The content of this website must not be construed as personal advice. All trading setups and/or trades presented in the web site and/or trading chat room by CastAway Trader an/or by other members of the chat should be considered hypothetical for educational purposes only and should not be expected to be replicated in a live trading account.
An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. You should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style.
You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading. You should seek advice from an independent financial advisor.
Any information posted on this web site is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All users of the website must determine for themselves what specific investments to make or not make and are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment decision. The reader bears responsibility for his/her own investment research and decisions, should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investment, and investigate and fully understand any and all risks before investing. All opinions, analyses and information posted on the website are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but should be independently verified, and no representation or warranty of any kind, express or implied, is made, including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, CastAwayTrader LLC and its officers and employees undertake no responsibility to notify such opinions, analyses or information or to keep such opinions, analyses or information current. Also be aware that the owners, officers and employees of the web site www.castawaytrader.com may have long or short positions in securities that may be discussed on the website, Premium Trading Chat room and/or in the videos posted by CastAway Trader LLC.
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