I count the rally that have been unfolding off 2009 low as an impulsive five wave up structure.
Wave ( 1 ) up topped in April 2010. Corrective wave ( 2 ) down bottomed in October 2011.
Wave ( A ) of ( 3 ) topped in July 2015. And Corrective wave ( B ) of ( 3 ) bottomed in February 2016.
The top made in January 2018 looks very much like the top of the wave ( 3 ) up ( please see the chart below ). It has tagged an important 223.6% extension and has a nice subdivision into five subwaves.
If the wave ( 3 ) up has topped we should expect a large correction in the wave ( 4 ) down. The typical target for that wave ( 4 ) will be the green target area in between of 17.75 and 16.90. There is a more bullish scenario where we have not seen the to pf the large wave ( 3 ) up but rather saw a temporary top in wave 3 of ( C ) of ( 3 ). That scenario implies another rally shaped as A-B-C into new all time high. But I would consider that scenario as having a relatively low probability and would not bet my money on it.
If XLF keeps moving lower into the green target box that would be a great high probability setup.