XBI has started a large correction

XBI is the SPDR® S&P® Biotech ETF that seeks to provide investment results corresponding to the total return performance of the S&P® Biotechnology Select Index.

I count the rally off the low in May 2006 as a classic five wave up fractal ( please see the second model chart below ).

I am pretty confident that we saw the wave ( A ) of ( 5 ) topped in June 2018. According to the classic Five Up Model wave ( A ) of ( 5 ) should be subdivided into five waves and top out around the top of the preceding rally in the wave ( 3 ). Both conditions were perfectly met.

The drop off the June top is subdivided into three waves (a)-(b)-(c). I count that move as the first leg of the decline in the wave ( A ) of ( B ) down.

At this point we should expect a corrective move up in the wave B of ( B ) which normally is the least predictable wave with the ugliest possible structure. There is no way we can predict whether that wave B of ( B ) will be strong or weak and where it can top. Once that wave B of ( B ) finds its top we should see the final decline in the wave C of ( B ) making new lows under the lows reached by wave A of ( B ) in October 2018.

As soon as that A-B-C move down in the wave (B) of ( 5 ) gets completed holding over the critical support of $45.80 we should get another strong impulsive rally to the new all time highs in the wave ( C ) of ( 5 ).

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