CastAway Trader
CastAway Trader Predict the Next Market Move

I sent that report to my subscribers at 9-30 AM on FOMC day, on Wednesday, June 19th, 2019. Back then TVIX traded at 19.81. I warned subscribers that TVIX may not hold the support and may drop to 17.90…

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TVIX - support may get broken

Despite the fact that TVIX is testing a strong Demand Zone the structure it follows lower hints that this support may not be strong enough to hold. If we count decline off the top at 31.86 made on May 9th as an impulsive move down, then we are in the strongest part of the decline, wave C of 3 down. that C of 3 should be subdivided into five micro waves. And the minimum target for wave iii of C of 3 is at 17.90. Even a bounce off 17.90 may be a flat one because the bounce would be a minor wave iv up inside wave C of 3, the strongest part of the decline. I would be very cautious playing with volatility here. If you buy you should be quick to sell on a spike. We do not have a structure to expect a large move up in vol.

TVIX - 15 min chart updated at 9-30 AM on 6-19-2019

24 hours after that warning TVIX dropped to 18.00 losing 9.1%. From 18.00 low made at 9.45 AM on June 20th we have got a corrective spike which I count as a micro corrective wave iv up. As it was predicted, that spike was a short-lived pullback.

TVIX - 15 min chart updated at 3-47 PM on 6-20-2019