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TVIX - can it support a bearish count for ES-mini?
You know that I keep saying that ES-mini has a completed structure of the rally off December 2018 low. However, I was counting TVIX as having completed only wave ( iii ) off the December 2018 top. Below I show you an alternative count where TVIX has completed five waves down off December 2018 top. Frankly, it would have been much better if it was only wave ( iii ) down here and that spike up was a corrective wave ( iv ) up. The structure of the move up really looks corrective.
The difference between those two counts is potential magnitude of that move up.
On the chart below (alternative where TVIX bottomed in five wave down structure) you can see red retracement fibs applied to the whole decline off December 2018. Even the minimum 23.6% retracement implies continuation of that move up to 34.60.
It’s a reasonable target for two additional reasons. First, we still have an unfilled gap down in between 33.91 and 33.08 dated back to 3/11/2019. Second, the first target for any pullback up is always the top of the previous wave ( iv ) up of a lower degree ( 36.72 ).