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ES - holds the bearish setup
This move off the low in wave iv up retraced 50% of the drop in the preceding drop in wave iii.
That is a textbook retracement ratio for wave iv up. Moreover, c of iv = 123.6% of a of iv which is another textbook extension for wave c of iv.
That is why I consider this a bearish setup.
But if price keeps pushing higher over 2,867 it will not longer have that “perfect” bearish view. If price keeps moving higher the probability of the drop will significantly decrease.