ES-4-3-19

Let’s zoom in to see details of this rally in wave ( c ) of ( v ). That a-b-c down we got on Tuesday really looks super shallow. From my experience it could have been wave iv of a smaller degree and we may still get a well pronounced wave iv down. That wave iv down may come as a sharp drop down without a nice looking a-b-c structure. The general rule of thumb is that you never short completion of the five waves of any degree until you get a well pronounced wave iv down after an extended rally in wave iii up. So far we do not have any confirmation that the micro wave c of iii has completed. We do not have that confirmation because we have not got a nice wave iv down. If you like indicators I can share a nice trick with you. Add MACD 12-26 and check if wave 4 down made MACD at least touch zero line. In many cases wave 4 makes MACD cross the zero line. But it would be an extremely rare case when wave 4 bottoms without MACD touching the zero line. Another rule of thumb is that the minimum pullback for wave 4 is 23.6% of wave 3. We have not seen that.