ES-3-29-19

ES - not clear if wave ( b ) down has completed - you'd better sit on your hands

ES has been following a five wave up fractal since the December 2018 lows. I count that December 2018 low as a low of wave ( 4 ) down and this rally as an impulsive wave ( A ) of ( 5 ) up that should target the previous top made in September 2018.

This current rally in wave ( A ) of ( 5 ) has to be subdivided into five waves of a smaller degree. To complete that rally we still need to get another small rally targeting a new 2019 high in a wave ( c ) of ( v )  of ) A ) of ( 5 ). That rally has to start as soon as the correction off 2,858.75 high made on 3/19/2019 gets completed. Technically speaking we got enough waves to call that pullback in wave ( b ) down completed. The price has hit a minimally required retracement level (the green target box). So far it has retraced 50% of the rally off the low made on 8 March 2019.

I reported a potential bottom of this corrective move in my previous post dated 3/24/2019. 

However, so far we have not seen any strength in the indices this week. That pullback down may extend lower to 2,776 or even to 2,756. As long as price stay over the critical support at 2,726 the bullish setup fro rally targeting a new higher high is valid.

Again, we can start rallying from here because wave ( b ) down may have been completed already. This is not a great spot to trade. There are too many potential trajectories both up and down.

If you want to join my private Discord educational chat for a free Friday trial please send email to castawaytrader@gmail.com

 

ES - 45 min chart updated on 3/29/2019

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