At this point ES has a very clean count. Let’s first look at the Five Fave fractal proposed by the Harmonic Elliott Wave theory.
I count the December 2018 low as the bottom of the corrective wave 4 down. Off that low we should get an impulsive rally in wave A of 5. That rally has to be subdivided into five smaller waves (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) and (v).
We have seen a completion of wave ( iii ) up at 2,814 on 25 Feb 2018. It followed by a corrective wave ( iv ) down that bottomed at 2,726.50 on 8 March 2019. To complete the rally started in December 2018 we needed to get the final wave ( v ) up subdivided into (a) up, (b) down and the final micro rally in wave (c) of ( v ) up.
We completed the first leg in the wave (a) of ( v ) up at 2,878.75 on 19 March 2019. Then we have got a corrective wave (b) down that has been nicely following an expanded flat corrective structure.
In the Expanded Flat structures wave c down (the impulsive drop we are tracking here ) normally stretches either to 176.4% ext of subwave a, or 200% or 223.6%.
So far it has nailed 176.4% ext which coincided with 50% retracement of wave ( a ) of ( v ).
If it does not stop here the next cluster of fibs:
200% ext = 2,781.50 and 58.6% retracement = 2,781.50
223.6% ext = 2.771.50 and 66.7% retracement is 2,771.00
This green box on the chart below is a long trade for a rally in the final ( c ) of ( v ) with a target in between 2,882 and 2,913.
That final wave ( c ) of ( v ) would complete a large rally in wave (A) of ( 5 ) up started in Dec 2018 and would set up a stage for a bigger wave (B) down. However, I want to warn bears that that larger corrective wave (B) down will NOT break Dec 2018 lows.