ES - too early to short

ES has been following nicely a five wave up fractal off the bottom made in December 2018.

At this point I count the top reached in late February as the top of the wave ( iii ) down. Then we got a nice corrective (a)-(b)-(c) pullback in wave ( iv ) down that bottomed last Friday. 

Last Friday at 3:17 PM I warned members of my private Discord chat: “the best count is a completed bearish corrective A-B-C up”. That was a solid hint that the pullback in main indices was over.

The rally on Tuesday looks like a completed wave ( a ) of ( v ) up. From here we may get a pullback down in wave ( b ) of ( v ). This pullback should stay over the critical support of 2,785. However, it is risky to go short this pullback because that wave ( b ) down may get really shallow. The next rally which may target 2,820 will finally complete the rally started in December. That would be a large wave ( A ) of ( 5 ) up. And off that top we should finally expect a meaningful pullback in wave ( B ) of ( 5 ) down that could retrace up to 61.8%-76.4% of that large rally.

ES futures - 10 min chart updated on 12 March 2019

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