DBA is the Invesco DB Agriculture Fund that seeks to track the DBIQ Diversified Agriculture Index. The Fund is designed for investors who want a cost-effective and convenient way to invest in commodity futures. The Index is a rules-based index composed of futures contracts on some of the most liquid and widely traded agricultural commodities including: live cattle, soybeans, sugar, corn, wheat , cocoa, coffee etc.
In my previous update posted on 10 Feb 2019 I explained why I believed that DBA had almost completed the whole down side structure started off the December 2008 top. back then DBA reached a top at $43.50. I concluded: “We are in the very final micro move down in a micro wave c down. There are three highly probable targets for that move: $16.40, $16.11 or $15.70. Once that final micro wave c finds its bottom we will see a multi year rally.”
Since that post DBA dropped to $16.60. Looking at a micro level it needs only one more drop to a new lower low. That would be a perfect completion of that 10 year long decline. At this point any move over 16.85 will be the first confirmation of completion of the structure.