DBA - 10 year long correction is 99.5% completed
DBA is the Invesco DB Agriculture Fund that seeks to track the DBIQ Diversified Agriculture Index. The Fund is designed for investors who want a cost-effective and convenient way to invest in commodity futures. The Index is a rules-based index composed of futures contracts on some of the most liquid and widely traded agricultural commodities including: live cattle, soybeans, sugar, corn, wheat , cocoa, coffee etc.
Let’s first look at a weekly chart. We can see that DBA topped at $43.50 in February 2008. Then it dropped into $12.50 in December 2008.
A corrective wave (B) up topped at $35.58 in March 2011. It retraced 61.8% of decline in the first leg down, the wave ( A ) down. The final leg down in the wave ( C ) is always subdivided into five waves of a smaller degree.
Wave 3 of ( C ) bottomed at $19.55 in February 2016. A corrective wave 4 up topped at $23.01 in June 2016. Off that top we should get the final A-B-C move down that would be the final wave 5 of ( C ). That wave should make a new all time low. Now lets scroll down and check a daily chart.
DBA - weekly chart updated on 10 February 2019
Now, when we are at the top of wave 4 of ( C ) we should zoom-in, meaning that we drop down to a lower time frame, from weeky to a daily. We zoom-in to get more details on the chart.
Now we can clearly see the first move down subdivided into five waves of a smaller degree. It is labelled as A of 5 and bottomed at $19.62 in December 2016. Then we see a pullback in wave B of 5 topped at $20.94 in January 2017. Off that top we should get the final wave C of 5 of ( C ). It should be subdivided into five waves of a smaller degree. As you can see below, wave ( iii ) bottomed at $16.81 in September 2017.
Then we saw a corrective pullback in wave ( iv ) up that topped at $17.82 in October 2017. Off that top the structure should get completed with the very final (a)-(b)-(c) move down of the wave ( v ) of C of 5 of ( C ). Let’s zoom in again. Now we will examine 120 min chart. Scroll down again please.
DBA - daily chart updated on 10 February 2019
As you can see below, wave ( a ) of ( v ) bottomed at $18.44 in April 2018. It was followed by a corrective wave ( b ) of ( v ) that topped at $19.54 in May 2018. Off that top we need to get the final move down structured as an impulsive wave. That means that inside that final decline to a new all time low we should be able to count five micro waves. So we start the process of counting waves again this time on this micro scale. We may see that the micro wave iii bottomed at $16.81 in September 2018. A corrective wave iv up topped at $17.78 in October 2018.
To complete the whole corrective macro (A)-(B)-(C) structure started at the top of 2008 we need to get the final micro a-b-c move down. Micro wave a bottomed at $16.95 on 24 Dec 2018. The corrective wave b up topped at $17.35 on 9 Jan 2019.
We are in the very final micro move down in a micro wave c down. There are three highly probable targets for that move: $16.40, $16.11 or $15.70. Once that final micro wave c finds its bottom we will see a multi year rally.
DBA - 2 hour chart updated on 10 February 2019
