Subscription: Micro Counts of Crude Oil & Nat Gas
Natural Gas - arrived into the Green Target Box BUT the structure is incomplete
This is a perfect example why a completed structure means more than price levels. Natural Gas is a very tough instrument when it comes to nailing a bottom because it can extend its decline lower and lower.
But there is a limit beyond which you understand that your count is not valid anymore. Nat Gaz dropped into my Green Target Box but the structure is incomplete. The problem is that we got a direct drop without a well pronounced wave iv up.
As long as we do not get that necessary pullback we are in the wave iii down that may get super extended in such a trending commodity like Natural Gas.
Now lets talk whether that count is still alive. Normally wave 5 targets either 50%, 76.4% or 85.4% of the distance covered by waves 1+3 together as projected from the top of wave iv up (the labels in Italic).
Nat Gas now is in the bottoming area for wave v down BUT we did not get iv up.
That means that even if we get iv up here then we will get another drop in wave v down. The max extension of (1+3) allowed for the wave 5 is 100% (2.477). If it goes under that 100% ext (which is quite extreme) then the count is wrong and we deal with wave iii down of a larger degree and the count is wrong. But that extension down makes me very very very cautious about trying to catch a bottom in Natty at this stage